Nasdaq -0.89%, S&P -0.41% — Risk-Off: Markets Under Pressure

Hey, Dongchun here.

Today in 3 Lines

US markets fell on software sector collapse driven by AI disruption fears.
ServiceNow -18%, IBM -10% on margin concerns; Texas Instruments surged +19% on earnings beat.
KOSPI at record 6,418; Samsung +3.22% on semiconductor strength despite foreign selling.

1. US Session Recap

US equities retreated on April 23, 2026 as a severe software sector selloff overwhelmed positive semiconductor momentum. The S&P 500 fell 0.41% to 7,108.40, the Nasdaq dropped 0.89% to 24,438.50, and the Dow Jones lost 0.36% to 49,310.32. The primary catalyst was a brutal earnings reaction to ServiceNow (-18%) and IBM (-10%), which reignited fears that AI tools from OpenAI and Anthropic are systematically disrupting the traditional enterprise software subscription model — ServiceNow alone reported a 75 basis point headwind from Middle East deal slippage, and the iShares Software ETF (IGV) crashed 6%, now down 19% year-to-date. Countering the software weakness, Texas Instruments surged 19% for its best single session since 2000 after a blowout quarter confirmed AI-driven semiconductor demand remains deeply intact, pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) up approximately 40% year-to-date. Oil surged further as Iran renewed Strait of Hormuz blockade activity — with Brent crude crossing $105/barrel (+3%) — raising inflation concerns and pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up 2.9 basis points to 4.32%. Market breadth was mixed with semiconductor strength providing a floor while software names led the decline. For Korean investors, the semiconductor tailwind from TXN's results is the most directly actionable signal: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the clearest beneficiaries of the AI hardware supercycle that TXN's guidance confirmed.

Index	Close	Change
S&P 500	7,108.40	-0.41%
Nasdaq	24,438.50	-0.89%
Dow Jones	49,310.32	-0.36%
Russell 2000	N/C	N/C

2. Korea Market Snapshot

The Korean market displayed remarkable resilience on April 24, 2026, with Samsung Electronics surging 3.22% to 224,500 KRW and the KOSPI having closed at a fresh record of 6,417.93 on April 23. The Texas Instruments earnings beat was the decisive catalyst — it directly validated demand for the types of chips Samsung and SK Hynix produce for AI data centers, and domestic institutions and retail investors bought aggressively on the signal. Foreigners, however, turned net sellers on both boards, likely locking in profits after consecutive record-high sessions. The divergence between semiconductor names (Samsung +3.22%) and battery/auto names (LG Energy Solution -3.72%, Hyundai -1.66%) is sharply defined; the rotation away from 2차전지 (secondary batteries) continues.

Table 1 — Korea index snapshot:

Index	Prev Close	Change	Key Level
KOSPI	6,417.93 (Apr 23 record)	+0.46% on Apr 23	Support 6,350 / Resistance 6,450
KOSDAQ	925.47 (Apr 23)	-0.76% on Apr 23	Support 900 / Resistance 950

Table 2 — Investor flow (April 24 session):

Investor	KOSPI Net	KOSDAQ Net	Trend
Foreigners	-576.7B KRW	-209.1B KRW	Net selling both boards
Institutions	+234.6B KRW	-122.1B KRW	Buying KOSPI, selling KOSDAQ
Retail	+472.2B KRW	+373.7B KRW	Net buying both boards

Foreign selling at record highs is normal profit-taking behavior but bears watching — if the outflow accelerates beyond 800B KRW on KOSPI, it would signal more structural de-risking. Institutions absorbing on KOSPI while selling KOSDAQ suggests a quality rotation within Korea itself. Watch foreigners' net position in Samsung Electronics specifically at 9:05 AM KST; it is the single best leading indicator for KOSPI direction.

3. Korea Sector Breakdown

The central theme of April 23 was the violent divergence between semiconductors and software — two sectors that had been closely correlated during the 2024–2025 AI-driven rally but have now dramatically separated in performance. Semiconductors (SOX +40% YTD) are pricing in an AI hardware supercycle driven by data center buildout, while software (IGV -19% YTD) is pricing in structural disruption of subscription revenues by AI agents and copilot tools. For Korea, this bifurcation is net positive: the KOSPI's heavy semiconductor weighting means the index outperforms when chips are in favor. Conversely, Korea's battery sector (LG Energy Solution -3.72%) and auto sector (Hyundai -1.66%) face separate headwinds — rising oil prices compress margins and complicate EV adoption economics. NAVER's 1.64% gain suggests some recovery from software contagion fears, but sustaining it requires next week's U.S. big-tech earnings to confirm AI infrastructure investment remains robust.

Sector	US Session	Korea Implication	Watch
Semiconductors	▲ TXN +19%, SOX strong YTD	Samsung +3.22%, SK Hynix +0.16%	KODEX Semiconductor ETF
Software	▼ IGV -6%, -19% YTD	NAVER, Kakao indirect pressure	Cloud/AI SaaS exposure
Energy	▲ +2.08%	S-Oil, refinery names benefit	Brent stays above $100
EV Batteries (2차전지)	▼ Weak	LG Energy Solution -3.72%	China EV demand data
Autos	▼ Mixed	Hyundai -1.66%	Oil price drag on EV economics
Shipbuilding / Defense	▲ Domestic driver	KOSPI record-high support	Order backlog updates

Morgan Stanley's S&P 500 target of 7,800 implies further market upside, but the sector rotation is accelerating. For Korean investors, the KODEX Semiconductor ETF is the clearest expression of the AI hardware bull case; the TIGER 2차전지 ETF is telling the opposing story.

4. Stocks on My Radar

All eight portfolio positions declined on April 23–24, with losses concentrated in names most exposed to software-sector contagion (ZETA, ORCL) and idiosyncratic execution risk (ASTS, SMR).

Ticker	Price	Session %	Key Event
BMNR	$22.00	-5.62%	ETH proxy selloff; holds 4.8M ETH (~4.1% of supply), MAVAN staking revenue $200M+ annualized
NVO	$38.52	-1.61%	Amazon GLP-1 direct-to-consumer entry compresses Wegovy pricing outlook; HIBISCUS Phase 3 success offset
ZETA	$17.09	-5.89%	Software sector contagion from IBM/ServiceNow; 18 consecutive beat-and-raise quarters unchanged
ORCL	$176.28	-5.98%	Canceled 300–400 Super Micro server rack order ($1.05B–$1.4B); GPU-as-a-Service margin under scrutiny
SMR	$12.72	-6.26%	Citi cut target to $9 (Sell); ENTRA1 class action lawsuit deepens; -70% from 6-month high
COIN	$197.93	-4.03%	CLARITY Act fatigue; Bitcoin decoupling signals regulatory-specific pressure; median analyst target $221.50
LAES	$2.81	-8.17%	Cantor lowered target $7→$4 (Overweight maintained); Quantum Vertical Stack announcement not priced positively
ASTS	$78.75	-6.98%	BlueBird-7 failed to reach target orbit; AT&T CEO cited SpaceX/Amazon as rivals; FCC 248-satellite approval intact

ORCL's server rack cancellation is the most actionable development — it directly implicates the AI cloud buildout thesis and raises questions about whether Oracle's GPU-as-a-Service expansion is running ahead of customer demand. ASTS faces near-term execution risk after the satellite anomaly, but the long-term case (FCC approval, 280% 1-year return baseline) remains structurally intact. ZETA's selloff is entirely sentiment-driven — the operational business (FCF +78%, 18 consecutive beats) shows no sign of the AI disruption being priced in.

5. Today's Trade Setup

Korean investors opening on April 24 face two competing forces: semiconductor sector strength (driven by TXN's blowout U.S. earnings) versus a foreign investor shift to net selling across both KOSPI and KOSDAQ. The KOSPI opened constructively given Samsung's 3.22% gain and the broader SOX momentum from overnight U.S. trading, but the 576.7B KRW foreign net sell on KOSPI is a meaningful caution flag that warrants active monitoring. The single most important indicator to watch at the 9:05 AM KST open is foreigners' net direction in Samsung Electronics specifically — Samsung's capitalization weight means its foreign flow alone typically sets the KOSPI's intraday tone. The two sectors deserving the most attention today are: (1) Semiconductors — Samsung and SK Hynix are the clearest direct beneficiaries of Texas Instruments' AI demand confirmation; the KODEX Semiconductor ETF is the most direct vehicle for this exposure. (2) Shipbuilding and Defense — these sectors have driven recent KOSPI record highs and are structurally insulated from both software disruption and battery sector pressures. Bull scenario: Foreigners return as net buyers in Samsung, oil stabilizes below $105, no fresh Iran escalation headlines → KOSPI tests 6,450 and sets a third consecutive record. Bear scenario: Foreign selling accelerates beyond 800B KRW, Brent oil pushes through $110 on renewed Hormuz blockade news → KOSPI tests 6,350 support. The underappreciated risk is a sudden Iran ceasefire announcement — paradoxically, a diplomatic resolution would trigger sharp profit-taking in energy names and a rapid oil price collapse, which would cascade into KOSPI sentiment given the elevated oil-linked sector weights. Base case: KOSPI trades a 6,390–6,440 range; semiconductor names outperform while battery and auto sectors remain under pressure; the index holds record-high territory but does not meaningfully extend it.

Bottom line: KOSPI expected to trade 6,390–6,440 range with semiconductors as key support; watch Iran-Hormuz escalation and foreign investor flow in Samsung for directional signal.

That's the AM breakdown for April 24. Trade safe.

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