Nasdaq +1.52%, S&P +1.20% — Risk-On: All Sectors Up — Dongchun Korea Preview 26/04/18

Hey, Dongchun here.

Today in 3 Lines
  • Nasdaq +1.52%, 13-session win streak — longest since 1992
  • Iran opens Hormuz, oil crashes -11.5%, all sectors rally
  • KOSPI chip-led gap-up open likely; watch 6,150-6,250 range

Previous post: Read it →

1. US Session Recap

Nasdaq closed +1.52% on April 17, marking its 13th consecutive winning session — the longest streak since 1992. The S&P 500 crossed 7,100 for the first time in history (+1.20%), while the Dow surged +1.79% (+869pt), fully erasing all Iran-war-related losses. The catalyst: Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial shipping during the Lebanon ceasefire, sending WTI crude crashing -11.5% and triggering broad risk-on buying. Notably, the rally was broad-based — Russell 2000 small-caps gained +2.11%, outperforming large-caps, which signals healthy market participation rather than mega-cap concentration. AAII bearish sentiment has outnumbered bulls for 9 consecutive weeks, yet Nasdaq keeps grinding higher — a classic wall-of-worry setup with further upside potential. For Korean investors: lower oil + weaker dollar + broad US risk-on is a near-perfect setup for a KOSPI gap-up open led by semiconductors.

IndexCloseChange
S&P 5007,117+1.20%
Nasdaq Composite~19,850+1.52%
Dow Jones~41,200+1.79%
Russell 20002,776.90 (ATH)+2.11%

2. Korea Market Snapshot

KOSPI slipped -0.55% on April 17 to 6,191.92, a healthy consolidation after the prior session's +2.21% surge — the index held well above 6,150 support. KOSDAQ dipped -0.91% to 1,162.97. Both pullbacks look like profit-taking, not distribution. Critically, foreign and institutional investors continued net buying for the 3rd consecutive session on April 16, concentrating purchases in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This three-day buying streak, combined with tonight's US rally, significantly raises the probability of a 4th consecutive day of foreign inflows on April 18 — when foreigners buy Samsung and SK Hynix together, it historically lifts KOSPI by 0.5-1.5%.

IndexPrev CloseChangeKey SupportResistance
KOSPI6,191.92-0.55%6,1506,250-6,300
KOSDAQ1,162.97-0.91%1,1401,180
InvestorNet Flow (Apr 16)Streak
Foreigners+464.4B KRW3-day buy streak
Institutions+1,103.8B KRW3-day buy streak
RetailSelling3-day sell streak

Foreign buying is laser-focused on Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) — the two largest KOSPI constituents. When these two are simultaneously bought by foreigners, it typically drags the index up regardless of other sector weakness. Watch the first 30 minutes of April 18 trading for the direction of foreign flow in these names — that will set the tone for the entire session.

3. Korea Sector Breakdown

The US rally was a clean risk-on rotation: tech, semis, financials, and consumer all gained, while only energy fell on the Hormuz oil crash. Goldman Sachs issued a positive call on AI software during the session, adding institutional conviction to the tech move. For Korean investors, semiconductors are the clearest beneficiary — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) gained on the session, directly correlated to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Korean financials should rally in sympathy with US bank gains. Watch out: Korean energy names (S-Oil, GS Holdings) face selling pressure from the oil crash, while Korean airlines (Korean Air, Asiana) may rally as jet fuel costs fall.

SectorUS SessionKorean PlayExpected Direction
SemiconductorsStrongSamsung (005930), SK Hynix (000660)Gap up likely
AI / SoftwareStrongKakao, NAVER, KraftonMild positive
FinancialsStrongKB Financial, Shinhan, HanaPositive
ConsumerStrongHyundai Motor, Lotte ShoppingMild positive
Energy / RefineryWeakS-Oil (010950), GS HoldingsSelling pressure
AirlinesBenefitKorean Air (003490), AsianaJet fuel tailwind

4. Stocks on My Radar

TickerPriceMoveKey Event
BMNR2.63+612.7% (6mo)NYSE uplisting + Ethereum treasury expansion
NVO0.93Near 52wk lowGLP-1 competition, 5 analysts at Buy
ORCL+3% sessionStrongCall/put ratio 3.4:1, cloud/AI DB demand
SMR~1.82+15.27% (Apr 15)NuScale nuclear deployment contract signed
COIN10.39+13.65% weeklyCrypto rally, 5.5B market cap
ZETAN/A—Data unavailable
SLNHN/A—Data unavailable

BMNR is a high-volatility speculative play — the Ethereum treasury strategy mirrors MicroStrategy's Bitcoin playbook and attracts momentum traders; not for the risk-averse. NVO sits at a historically attractive valuation near its 52-week low, with 5 Wall Street analysts maintaining Buy ratings; the GLP-1 competition narrative has likely been over-discounted. ORCL's 3.4:1 call/put ratio is unusually elevated and signals institutional positioning ahead of earnings — cloud database and AI workload demand remains a structural tailwind. SMR's nuclear contract ties directly into the AI data center power demand story that is driving energy infrastructure spending in 2026.

5. Today's Trade Setup

Base case for April 18: KOSPI gaps up 20-40 points at the open to around 6,210-6,230, led by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix tracking the overnight US semiconductor rally. The first 30 minutes are decisive — if foreigners are net buyers in Samsung Electronics specifically, the rally sustains through the session; if they flip to selling despite the US rally, treat it as a warning sign. Bull scenario: foreign buying extends to a 4th day, KOSPI tests 6,250-6,300, semiconductor and financial stocks lead, KOSDAQ follows with a 0.5-1% gain. Bear scenario: the Hormuz opening narrative gets walked back (Iran or US denies it), oil spikes back above 0, and risk-off selling hits — KOSPI pulls back toward 6,100-6,150, energy and consumer names lead the decline. The most underappreciated risk: USD/KRW is the real-time signal. If the won weakens toward 1,400 at the open despite the positive US session, that signals foreign selling — don't chase the open gap. If USD/KRW holds below 1,390, the bull case is intact. For investors new to Korean markets: the most liquid way to participate is via the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) on NYSE, or direct purchase of Samsung Electronics GDR on the London Stock Exchange.

Bottom line: KOSPI likely gaps up with semis leading; profit-taking risk after 4/16 surge — key level 6,200

That's the AM breakdown for April 18. Trade safe.

Sources

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