The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both hit record highs | Nasdaq +1.63%, S&P +0.80% — Korea Open Preview 26/04/25
Hey, Dongchun here.
- Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit all-time highs; Intel surged 23% on massive Q1 earnings beat.
- SOX semiconductor index rose for 18th straight session; AI CPU demand confirmed.
- KOSPI expected to gap up Monday; foreign buying revival is the key trigger.
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1. US Session Recap
The S&P 500 closed at 7,165.08 (+0.80%) and the Nasdaq hit a fresh record at 24,836.60 (+1.63%) on Friday April 24, 2026 — both indices achieved all-time highs simultaneously for the first time since the recent earnings-driven rally began. The Dow Jones slipped 0.16% to 49,230.71 as energy and financial stocks lagged, while the Russell 2000 added 0.43%.
The defining catalyst was Intel's Q1 2026 earnings report: EPS of $0.29 vs. $0.01 consensus (a 28x beat) and revenue of $13.6B vs. $12.36B expected, with the Data Center & AI (DCAI) segment surging 22% year-over-year. The market interpreted this as confirmation that AI workloads are driving CPU demand alongside GPUs — a paradigm shift that had been doubted as recently as six months ago.
Market breadth was broadly positive in technology: Nvidia reclaimed its $5 trillion market cap, AMD surged 12%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) extended its winning streak to 18 consecutive sessions — one of the longest runs since the 2000 dotcom era. The VIX fell 3.11% to 18.71, well below the 20 threshold, signaling a controlled risk-on environment. A significant secondary catalyst was the DOJ dropping its criminal probe into Fed Chair Powell, removing a key obstacle to Kevin Warsh's confirmation as the next Fed Chair.
The Korea implication is direct and positive: Intel's DCAI +22% confirms sustained AI data-center demand, which directly supports HBM memory sales at SK Hynix — the dominant HBM supplier. Samsung Electronics also benefits from improved semiconductor sentiment, even though its HBM market share remains lower.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,165.08 | +0.80% |
| Nasdaq | 24,836.60 | +1.63% |
| Dow Jones | 49,230.71 | -0.16% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,787.00 | +0.43% |
2. Korea Market Snapshot
KOSPI closed at 6,458.58 (-0.27%) on Friday April 24, 2026, ending a three-day record-high streak on heavy foreign selling. The KOSDAQ, however, surged to close above 1,200 for the first time in 25 years at 1,203.84 (+2.51%), a historic milestone driven by foreign rotation into small-cap biotech and AI names.
Foreign investors net-sold 2.1 trillion KRW on KOSPI — one of the largest single-day outflows in recent memory — with Samsung Electronics as the primary target (stock reversed from +3.22% intraday to -2.23% at close). Concurrently, foreigners rotated into KOSDAQ, driving the benchmark to the 1,200 breakthrough. This pattern — selling large-cap KOSPI while buying small-cap KOSDAQ — signals that foreign money has not left Korea but is repositioning within it.
Domestic institutions absorbed +2,346B KRW of the selling pressure on KOSPI, while retail added +4,722B KRW; together they prevented a deeper decline. The next key test is Monday April 27: if Nasdaq's +1.63% record close persuades foreigners to return to Samsung and SK Hynix, the 6,500 level is in play. If selling continues, 6,430 becomes the first support to watch.
| Index | Prev Close | Change | Key Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,458.58 | -0.27% | 6,430 support / 6,500 target |
| KOSDAQ | 1,203.84 | +2.51% | 1,200 breakout confirmed |
| Investor | KOSPI Net | KOSDAQ Net | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | -2,104.8B KRW | Net buying | 3-day KOSPI sell streak; rotating to KOSDAQ |
| Institutions | +234.6B KRW | -122.1B KRW | Absorbing KOSPI selling |
| Retail | +472.2B KRW | +373.7B KRW | Buying dip across both boards |
3. Korea Sector Breakdown
The dominant theme on Friday in Korea was a continuation of the intraday rotation dynamic: semiconductors under pressure from foreign selling despite intact fundamentals, secondary batteries staging a dramatic V-reversal, and autos hit by an earnings shock. In the US session that followed, semiconductors reclaimed leadership globally on Intel's earnings beat.
The top gaining Korean sector was secondary batteries (2차전지): LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) reversed from -3.72% intraday to close at +3.11% (481,000 KRW). The catalyst was ESS demand — LG Energy's 2026 ESS revenue is projected to surpass its EV revenue for the first time, and the AI data-center power-demand build is directly accelerating this. For Monday, if the US semiconductor rally translates to Korean chip stocks, battery sentiment should also remain supported.
The biggest loser was autos — Hyundai Motor (005380.KS, -3.57%) on Q1 2026 operating profit down 30.8% YoY, with US tariff costs of 860B KRW being the primary driver. Semiconductors were technically negative on the Korean side (Samsung -2.23%, SK Hynix -0.24%) due to foreign selling, not fundamental weakness. Internet stocks (NAVER -1.61%, Kakao -0.72%) continued to face software sector contagion from IBM and ServiceNow's disappointing reports.
| Sector | US Session | Korea Stock | Korea Move | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | ▲▲ SOX Day 18 | Samsung (005930), SK Hynix (000660) | -2.23%, -0.24% | Monday gap-up expected |
| 2차전지 (Batteries) | ▶ Neutral | LG Energy (373220) | +3.11% | ESS demand thesis intact |
| Autos | ▶ Neutral | Hyundai Motor (005380) | -3.57% | Earnings shock; Kia result pending |
| Internet | ▼ Software weak | NAVER (035420), Kakao (035720) | -1.61%, -0.72% | Apr 29 BigTech earnings watch |
| Biotech | ▲ NVO tailwind | — | — | NVO PIONEER TEENS win |
4. Stocks on My Radar
| Ticker | Price | Session % | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | $22.14 | +0.64% | ETH holdings at 4.976M tokens; total crypto+cash assets $12.9B; crypto market stabilization |
| NVO | $41.17 | +6.88% | PIONEER TEENS Phase 3 success: oral semaglutide effective in adolescents 10-17 with T2D |
| ZETA | $17.53 | +2.57% | Software sector bounce from oversold levels; 18-quarter earnings beat streak intact |
| ORCL | $173.28 | -1.70% | AWS AI partnership positive but Super Micro rack cancellation overhang persists |
| SMR | $11.96 | -5.97% | ENTRA1 class action expanding; HSBC Hold/$13 initiated but Citi Sell/$9 prevails |
| COIN | $199.77 | +0.93% | Risk-on recovery; OCC bank trust charter momentum; Q1 earnings May 7 |
| LAES | $2.95 | +4.98% | QSOC 100-satellite quantum program; Cantor Overweight at $4 target; sector bounce |
| ASTS | $76.40 | -2.98% | BlueBird-7 orbital anomaly day 3; ~$23M loss largely insured; BB 8-10 ready in 30 days |
NVO's 6.88% surge is the standout portfolio mover: the PIONEER TEENS readout positions oral semaglutide as the potential first oral GLP-1 for pediatric type 2 diabetes, a new market that materially expands Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 franchise beyond the adult obesity/diabetes battle with Eli Lilly. ASTS remains binary — the $23M insured hardware loss limits downside, but the BlueBird 8-10 launch sequence (30-day readiness confirmed) is the next pivotal event; any launch success immediately reverses the narrative. SMR's additional 5.97% decline despite HSBC's Hold initiation signals that the ENTRA1 litigation is the dominant driver and fundamental arguments are being ignored until the legal overhang clears.
5. Today's Trade Setup
KOSPI is expected to open Monday April 27 in a gap-up of approximately +0.3% to +0.7%, targeting the 6,480–6,510 range, driven by Nasdaq's +1.63% record close and the S&P 500's eighth new all-time high of 2026. The primary driver is the Intel earnings blowout, which confirmed AI infrastructure demand at a level that directly supports SK Hynix's HBM revenue stream and reverses the semiconductor narrative that had briefly turned cautious.
The single most important indicator at the Monday open is foreign investor net flow into Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) in the 9:00–9:05 AM KST window. Samsung was the primary target of 2.1 trillion KRW in foreign selling on Friday; if foreigners reverse course at the open (net buy > +200B KRW in Samsung in the first 30 minutes), KOSPI has a clear path to 6,500. Foreign selling continuation > 500B KRW on Samsung in the first hour would cap the rally and signal a third consecutive week of outflows.
Top two sectors to focus on Monday: (1) Semiconductors — SK Hynix (000660.KS) is the cleanest beneficiary of Intel's DCAI +22% signal; Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) needs to reverse Friday's intraday reversal pattern. (2) Secondary batteries — LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) is holding the ESS demand thesis and KOSDAQ continues its historic run above 1,200 with Korean retail support.
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | KOSPI Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Foreign net buy in Samsung > +200B KRW at open + Nasdaq futures stable | Tests 6,500–6,510 |
| Neutral | Foreign sell < 500B KRW + semiconductors hold gains + KOSDAQ above 1,200 | 6,460–6,490 range |
| Bear | Foreign outflow > 1T KRW + Kia earnings shock + BigTech pre-sell ahead of Apr 29 | 6,420–6,430 support |
Base case: KOSPI opens modestly higher on Monday (+0.3–0.5%), with Samsung Electronics' first-30-minute foreign flow setting the daily tone. For readers who cannot access KRX directly, EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF) and Samsung Electronics GDR (SMSN.L on the London Stock Exchange) are the most accessible proxies for Monday's directional move.
Bottom line: KOSPI expected to open Monday April 27 in a modest gap-up (6,480–6,510 target range), with Samsung Electronics' foreign-investor flow in the first 30 minutes being the single most important signal.
That's the AM breakdown for April 25. Trade safe.
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