[Dongchun Weekly] April Week 4 — SK Hynix 72% OP Margin, Intel +23% Earnings Blowout, KOSPI All-Time High

Hey, Dongchun here.

Here's how the week went.

The Week in Numbers

This was a decisive risk-on week. The Nasdaq gained 1.5% to a new all-time high of 24,837 and the S&P 500 added 0.55% to 7,165, powered by Trump's indefinite US-Iran ceasefire extension (April 22) combined with an AI hardware earnings blitz: Intel +23%, Texas Instruments +19%, GE Vernova +12%. Week on week, this was the single biggest catalyst cluster since the start of the AI-driven rally.

The rally was narrow, not broad. The Russell 2000 added only 0.36% versus the Nasdaq's 1.5%, confirming large-cap semiconductor and AI infrastructure leadership. The SOX semiconductor index extended its historic winning streak to 18 consecutive sessions — its longest run since the dotcom era.

Meanwhile, software (IGV ETF -6%) cratered as ServiceNow and IBM flagged AI disruption of their subscription models.

Korea dramatically outperformed the US, with KOSPI gaining 4.3% to 6,459 and setting multiple all-time highs through the week, while KOSDAQ surged 2.9% above 1,200 for the first time in 25 years. The outperformance was driven by a domestic catalyst stack: SK Hynix posting all-time record Q1 operating profit of 37.6 trillion KRW at a 72% margin, Korea's April semiconductor exports exploding +180% YoY, and foreign investors accumulating 4.6 trillion KRW in KOSPI by mid-week before taking profits in the second half.

The 10-year Treasury yield edged up 4 basis points to 4.31% as WTI crude surged 7.5% on Middle East tensions. DXY held near 98.5, a mild dollar headwind for Korean equities that was overwhelmed by foreign semiconductor buying in the first half of the week.

Index	Week Open	Week Close	Weekly %	Note
S&P 500	7,126	7,165.08	+0.55%	All-Time High
Nasdaq	24,468	24,836.60	+1.51%	All-Time High
Dow Jones	49,447	49,230.71	-0.44%	Energy/financial drag
Russell 2000	2,777	2,787.00	+0.36%	Lagged large caps
KOSPI	6,192.00	6,458.58	+4.31%	Multiple all-time highs
KOSDAQ	1,170.04	1,203.84	+2.89%	25-year high above 1,200

Indicator	Start of Week	End of Week	Weekly Change	Market Read
US 10Y Yield	4.27%	4.31%	+4bp	Oil-driven inflation concern
DXY	98.29	98.50	+0.2%	Mild dollar strength
VIX (weekly high)	17.48	19.50	+2.0p	Controlled — no panic
EWY	~$148	~$153	+3.4% (est.)	Foreign buying reflected

3 Big Themes of the Week

Theme 1: US-Iran Hormuz Crisis and the Indefinite Ceasefire Pivot

On April 20, the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship, and Iran responded by re-closing the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply. WTI surged 6.49% in a single day to $89.29, snapping Nasdaq's 13-consecutive-day winning streak, the longest since 1992. Brent crude touched $105 at its intraday peak by mid-week, reigniting inflation fears and pushing the 10-year yield up.

On April 22, Trump announced an indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire. Markets reversed instantly: Nasdaq gained 1.64% to a record 24,657 and the S&P 500 rose 1.05% to a fresh ATH. For Korea, which imports roughly 70% of its oil through the Strait, the geopolitical whiplash directly impacted autos (Hyundai -3.57% on tariff + oil margin compression) and energy stocks (Doosan Enerbility +5.09%).

The situation remains unresolved heading into next week, with VP Vance heading to Pakistan for round-three Iran talks.

Theme 2: SK Hynix 72% Operating Margin — the AI Memory Crown

On April 23, SK Hynix reported Q1 2026 operating profit of 37.6 trillion KRW on revenue of 52.6 trillion KRW — the first quarter any Korean company has crossed 50 trillion KRW in revenue. The 72% operating margin surpassed TSMC, making SK Hynix the most profitable major semiconductor company in the world for the quarter. The result beat consensus (36.4 trillion KRW) by 3.3% and confirmed HBM AI memory demand is in a structural growth cycle.

The stock itself barely moved (+0.16%), as the result was widely anticipated. The real impact was on Samsung Electronics (+3.22% sympathy) and on the index: KOSPI hit 6,475 — another all-time high — driven by foreign accumulation of 4.6 trillion KRW in April through mid-week. The read-through for next week is direct: if the four Big Tech companies confirm AI capex acceleration on April 29, the HBM demand thesis is further validated, and foreign buyers are likely to return to Samsung and SK Hynix.

Theme 3: Semiconductor Earnings Blowout vs Software Meltdown

April 22 night delivered the sharpest sector bifurcation of the year: ServiceNow fell 18% and IBM dropped 10% after flagging AI disruption of their subscription revenue models — the iShares Software ETF (IGV) crashed 6% in a single session, now down 19% year-to-date. On the same night, Texas Instruments surged 19% on its best session since 2000 by confirming AI chip demand, and Intel delivered a 28x EPS beat on April 24, with its Data Center & AI (DCAI) segment up 22% year-over-year. SOX extended its run to 18 consecutive sessions.

For Korea, this bifurcation is net positive: KOSPI's heavy semiconductor weighting means the index benefits when chips are in favor. NAVER (-1.61%) and Kakao (-0.72%) faced software-sector contagion but with limited severity. The resolution of the AI software vs.

AI hardware debate will be largely determined by next week's Big Tech earnings from Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon.

Weekend Catch-up

US Vice President JD Vance and Jared Kushner are traveling to Pakistan to attempt a third round of negotiations with the Iranian side. Iran has not confirmed its participation. If talks restart, WTI could fall back toward $88–90, removing a key inflation overhang for global markets.

If Iran refuses, WTI risks retesting $100 and the Monday Korea open faces an energy-shock headwind — especially for auto and refinery stocks.

The Israel-Lebanon three-week ceasefire extension, agreed April 24, remains in place. This reduces one layer of Middle East risk for global energy markets. Korean defense stocks (Hanwha Aerospace, Hyundai Rotem) may face some Monday profit-taking as the geopolitical intensity eases; however, the broader market benefits from reduced tail risk.

The weekend also saw continued build-up of consensus expectations for Wednesday's Big Tech earnings quartet. Intel's DCAI +22% result and Texas Instruments' blowout quarter have set a high bar for AI capex read-through. Monday and Tuesday will likely see pre-positioning in Nasdaq names; Korean semiconductors (Samsung, SK Hynix) should benefit from the global setup if no adverse geopolitical news breaks before the market opens.

Sector & Foreign Flow

The dominant US theme was the semiconductor-software split: the SOX index has now logged 18 consecutive up sessions, its longest streak since the dotcom era, powered by AI hardware demand confirmation from Intel (+23%), Texas Instruments (+19%), and GE Vernova (+12%). In Korea, Samsung Electronics (+3.22% on Thursday) and SK Hynix (+0.16% on earnings day) led the KOSPI to multiple all-time highs, while Doosan Enerbility (+5.09%) captured the energy infrastructure theme. The Samsung-SK Hynix AI memory franchise — especially SK Hynix's dominant HBM market share — directly benefits from US data center semiconductor demand.

The weakest US sector was software: the iShares Software ETF (IGV) dropped 6% in a single session after ServiceNow (-18%) and IBM (-10%) flagged AI disruption of their subscription revenue bases. This contagion spilled into Korean internet names — NAVER (-1.61%) and Kakao (-0.72%) — though the damage was contained. The divergence between AI hardware beneficiaries and AI software disruptees is one of the most structurally important market dynamics of 2026.

Foreign investors drove KOSPI's 4.3% weekly gain with a cumulative April net buy of 4.6 trillion KRW, concentrated in SK Hynix (1.83 trillion KRW) and Samsung Electronics (1.04 trillion KRW). The Friday profit-taking of 2.1 trillion KRW was the largest single-day outflow in recent memory, but domestic institutions (+234.6 billion KRW) and retail (+472.2 billion KRW) absorbed the selling. If the Big Tech earnings on April 29 confirm AI spending, foreigners are likely to resume buying Korean semiconductors next week, keeping the 6,500 KOSPI target in play.

Sector	US Weekly	Direction	Korea Linked	Korea Weekly	Watch Stock
Semiconductors	SOX 18-day streak	▲	Samsung (005930), SK Hynix (000660)	▲ Strong	SK Hynix 72% margin
Big Tech / AI	Nasdaq ATH	▲	NAVER (035420), Kakao (035720)	▼ Weak	Apr 29 BigTech earnings
Energy	WTI +7.5%	▲	S-Oil (010950), Doosan Enerbility (034020)	▲ Strong	Iran Hormuz risk
Financials	Mixed	△	KB (105560), Shinhan (055550)	△ Mixed	Rate uncertainty
EV / Battery	Mixed (Tesla beat)	△	LG Energy (373220), Samsung SDI (006400)	△ V-reversal	LGE -3.72%→+3.11%

Crypto Corner & Kimchi Premium

Bitcoin opened the week near $75,901 and rallied to briefly touch $79,000 on April 23 as Trump's indefinite Iran ceasefire extension ignited a broad risk-on wave. By Friday April 25, BTC had settled near $77,791 for a weekly gain of approximately +2.5%. The move is notable for its drivers: negative funding rates persisting for 47+ days suggest this is a spot-buying bid, not a leverage-driven spike, which historically signals more sustainable price action.

Ethereum (+1.3% to ~$2,344) and Solana (+3.6% to ~$86) both underperformed Bitcoin on the week. BTC dominance rising to 58.09% confirms we are in a Bitcoin-led cycle, not an altcoin season. The ETH/BTC ratio continued its weakening trend, though Solana showed relative resilience versus ETH.

BMNR (Bitmine), holding 4.976M ETH (~4.12% of total supply), showed how concentrated ETH proxy positions can spike and reverse within the same week — up 25.8% on April 22 before returning to flat by Friday.

The Kimchi Premium stands at approximately +0.57% (Upbit vs Binance BTC, estimated as of late April 2026). This is a neutral reading — far below the 5–10%+ extremes seen in previous bull cycles. The normalization reflects South Korea's tightened AML/KYC enforcement on Upbit and Bithumb, which structurally limits the size of the premium.

A premium in the +1–3% range would signal genuine domestic retail demand picking up.

The Fear & Greed Index at 39 (Fear) is improving from the 29 (Extreme Fear) low on April 20 but has not yet crossed the 50 (Neutral) threshold. Total crypto market cap stands at approximately $2.68 trillion with BTC dominance at 58.09%. Until BTC makes a decisive close above $80,000 and the Fear & Greed Index crosses into Neutral territory, altcoin expansion will remain limited.

Coin	Week Open	Week Close	Weekly %	Key Driver
BTC	$75,901	$77,791	+2.5%	Iran ceasefire risk-on, alternative asset demand
ETH	$2,314	$2,344	+1.3%	Underperformed BTC; dominance weak
SOL	~$83	~$86	+3.6%	Relative outperformer vs ETH

Kimchi Premium: +0.57% as of [2026-04 estimated] KST Fear & Greed: 39 — Fear

This Week's Prediction Scorecard

This week's prediction accuracy was mixed, with directional calls generally correct but magnitude consistently underestimated. Out of 10 tracked calls, approximately 4 were clean hits, 4 were partial, and 2 missed outright — mostly by being too cautious. The most impactful error was the Monday morning call projecting KOSPI 6,160–6,220, which missed by nearly 230 points as Korea's April export explosion (+49.4% YoY, semiconductors +180%) triggered a 2.72% surge to an all-time high.

The best prediction of the week was the Tuesday evening call projecting a 6,410–6,430 KOSPI target if SK Hynix delivered a 40 trillion KRW earnings beat. SK Hynix came in at 37.6 trillion KRW — not 40T, but still a beat — and KOSPI hit 6,475 the following day. The second-best call was predicting Nasdaq would significantly outperform Friday's futures signal: the model anticipated +0.58% but Nasdaq delivered +1.63% on Intel's blowout.

The biggest miss was Thursday's forecast that external semiconductor momentum (TXN +19%) would drive KOSPI toward 6,500 Friday. Instead, foreign investors offloaded 2.1 trillion KRW on KOSPI in a single day — the largest single-session outflow of the recent rally. Samsung Electronics reversed 5 percentage points intraday (from +3.22% to -2.23%) under the selling pressure.

The lesson: at ATH levels, foreign profit-taking velocity can overwhelm even strong fundamental tailwinds.

Day	Post	Key Prediction	Actual Result	Verdict
Mon	AM	KOSPI 6,160–6,220 box	KOSPI 6,388 ATH (+2.72%)	❌
Mon	PM	6,400 if Iran ceasefire	6,388 without ceasefire	△
Tue	AM	Gap-down -0.3% to -0.5%	6,404 intraday ATH, 6,395 close	△
Tue	PM	SK Hynix 40T+ → 6,410–6,430	37.6T beat, KOSPI 6,475	✅
Wed	AM	Semis + batteries lead	Samsung -2.23% (foreign selling), LGE V-reversal	△
Wed	PM	Mild gap-down on -0.3% futures	KOSPI -0.27%, inline	✅
Thu	AM	Intel beat → KOSPI 6,500	KOSPI 6,458 (-0.27%), 2.1T KRW outflow	❌
Thu	PM	Nasdaq futures +0.58% → gap-up	Nasdaq +1.63% on Intel, massive beat	✅
Fri	AM	GDP as key macro variable	GDP scheduled Apr 30, not released	△
Fri	AM	DOJ/Fed risk monitor	DOJ dropped Powell probe — positive surprise	✅

Next Week's Playbook

The single most important variable to watch next week is the April 29 Big Tech earnings quartet. Intel's DCAI +22% and Texas Instruments' blowout have set high AI capex expectations — if Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon collectively confirm AI infrastructure spending is translating into revenue, the entire semiconductor and AI hardware trade gets another leg up. A single miss on guidance from any of the four could rattle Nasdaq and create a KOSPI headwind before Korea opens on April 30.

US market direction: Bullish. SOX 18-session streak, Nasdaq ATH, and a strong earnings season backdrop support continued upside. The base case is S&P 500 testing 7,200 and Nasdaq approaching 25,000 if Big Tech delivers.

Korea direction: Cautiously Bullish. The 2.1 trillion KRW foreign outflow on April 24 is profit-taking, not a trend reversal — but it needs to stop. A KOSPI level to watch as support is 6,400; a sustained close above 6,480 with foreign net buying would re-open the path to 6,500.

The single best Monday morning leading indicator for KOSPI direction is Samsung Electronics' foreign investor net buy/sell in the first 30 minutes of trading (9:00–9:05 AM KST). If foreigners net-buy more than +200 billion KRW in Samsung in the first 30 minutes, KOSPI has a clear path to 6,480+. One underappreciated risk: the US Q1 GDP initial estimate on April 30 — Hyundai Motor's Q1 earnings showed 860 billion KRW in US tariff costs, and if consumer spending data confirms broad tariff-driven weakness, the stagflation narrative resurfaces.

The underappreciated opportunity: ZETA's April 30 earnings could catalyze a meaningful re-rating — 18 consecutive beat-and-raise quarters versus a stock that was sold off on AI-disruption contagion fears with zero company-specific evidence of that disruption.

Date	Event	Consensus / Expected	Market Impact
Apr 28 (Tue)	US Consumer Confidence	Tariff impact on sentiment	Gauge of consumer health
Apr 29 (Wed)	Meta / MSFT / GOOGL / AMZN earnings	AI capex + revenue growth	Defines Nasdaq direction for next 2 weeks
Apr 30 (Thu)	US Q1 GDP (advance estimate)	Growth slowdown risk	Stagflation vs soft-landing call
Apr 30 (Thu)	Samsung Q1 final + conf. call	57.2T confirmed, Q2 guidance key	KOSPI direction
Apr 30 (Thu)	PCE inflation data	Core PCE trend	Fed rate path signal

Dongchun's Weekly Parting Thought

AI hardware built the future this week while software watched its subscription model slowly get eaten alive — and Korea was the cleanest beneficiary in the world.

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That's the weekly wrap for 2026-04-26. Trade safe.