WTI crude surged 8.36% to $108.28 on a US blockade of Iranian | Nasdaq +0.04%, S&P -0.04% — Korea Open Preview 26/04/30
Hey, Dongchun here.
The single most important fact today is that WTI jumped 8.36% to $108.28 and the inflation re-acceleration clock has restarted. The reason it matters is that the FOMC split 8-4 with three dissenters demanding the easing-bias language be removed — combined with the oil shock, the rate path is tilting hawkish again. Watch two things: whether Hormuz stays closed for another week, and whether SK Hynix can reclaim 1,300,000 KRW as the Big Tech split (Alphabet/MSFT beat vs Meta CAPEX shock) plays out in Korea's open.
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1. US Session Recap
The S&P 500 inched down 0.04% to 7,135.95, the Nasdaq Composite crept up 0.04% to 24,673.24, the Dow fell 0.57% to 48,861.81 for a fifth straight losing day, and the Russell 2000 dropped 0.60% to 2,739.47. The flat tape masked a violent under-the-surface split: SOX rebounded +2.35% to 10,271.30 while energy and shipping ripped on the oil spike.
The single biggest catalyst was the US blockade of Iranian ports after stalled US–Iran peace talks effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 35% of global seaborne crude. WTI jumped 8.36% to $108.28 — the IEA called this the largest oil supply shock on record. The Fed then held at 3.50–3.75% with four FOMC dissenters, three of whom wanted the easing bias language removed.
Breadth was poor: VIX spiked +5.50% to 18.81, the Russell underperformed the Nasdaq, and the Dow's five-day losing streak shows the rotation away from oil-sensitive cyclicals. After hours, Alphabet jumped about 6% on a massive beat (EPS $5.11 vs $2.62 estimate, revenue $109.9B), Microsoft beat with Azure +39%, and Meta dropped 5.74% on a $145B CAPEX guide.
Direct Korea implication: SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics get a positive HBM read-through from MSFT Azure +39% and Alphabet Cloud $20B; conversely, Meta CAPEX shock could pressure NAVER and Kakao via the ad-confidence channel. Refiners (SK Innovation, S-Oil) benefit from WTI; airlines (Korean Air) and shippers face direct cost pressure.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,135.95 | -0.04% |
| Nasdaq | 24,673.24 | +0.04% |
| Dow Jones | 48,861.81 | -0.57% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,739.47 | -0.60% |
2. Korea Market Snapshot
KOSPI sits at 6,641.02 (+0.39%, +25.99 points) and KOSDAQ at 1,215.58 (-0.86%, -10.60 points), with the index defending the 6,600 zone after a record run earlier in the week. The split between large-cap KOSPI and mid/small-cap KOSDAQ reflects the Big Tech overnight bifurcation reaching Korea unevenly.
Foreigners' early-session flow is the leading variable. Samsung Electronics +1.80% to 226,000 KRW suggests early absorption of MSFT/Alphabet beats into HBM names, while SK Hynix at -0.54% (1,293,000 KRW) is digesting the Meta CAPEX shock just below the 1,300,000 resistance. Kakao -0.92% reflects ad-confidence concerns.
The combined flow pattern points to large-cap defense plus small-cap weakness. Tonight's Apple/Amazon prints and WTI's path are the swing factors. If Hormuz tension persists, Korean refiner names will continue to outperform while airlines lag.
| Index | Prev Close | Change | Key Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,641.02 | +0.39% | 6,600 support / 6,700 resistance |
| KOSDAQ | 1,215.58 | -0.86% | 1,200 support |
| Investor | KOSPI Net | KOSDAQ Net | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | Mixed | Net sell | Selective on mega-caps |
| Institutions | Net buy | Mixed | Defending the index |
| Retail | Net buy | Net buy | Buying small-cap dips |
3. Korea Sector Breakdown
The dominant theme is a Big Tech split colliding with an oil supply shock. AI CAPEX guidance from MSFT (Azure +39%) and Alphabet (Cloud $20B) supports Korean memory, while Meta's $145B CAPEX guide and weak DAU pressure ad-revenue proxies. Refiners benefit from WTI +8.36%, airlines and shippers face cost pressure.
Top gaining Korean sectors: Memory semis led by Samsung Electronics (005930) at +1.80% on MSFT/Alphabet AI CAPEX confirmation. Refining benefits from WTI $108 — SK Innovation (096770) and S-Oil (010950) are the direct read-throughs. Defense stays firm with Hanwha Aerospace (012450) on Middle East tension.
Top lagging sectors: Internet — Kakao (035720) -0.92% on Meta DAU miss spillover. Memory remained mixed with SK Hynix (000660) at -0.54%. Small-cap KOSDAQ -0.86% as the hawkish FOMC dissent compresses risk appetite.
| Sector | US Session | Korea Stock | Korea Move | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memory Semis | ▲ SOX +2.35% | Samsung (005930) | +1.80% | KODEX Semiconductor |
| Refining | ▲ Energy ripped | SK Innovation (096770) | Watch | Refiner ETF |
| Defense | ▲ Geopolitical | Hanwha Aerospace (012450) | Watch | KODEX Defense |
| Memory Semis | ▼ Mixed | SK Hynix (000660) | -0.54% | 1,300,000 line |
| Internet | ▼ Meta CAPEX | Kakao (035720) | -0.92% | NAVER read-through |
4. Stocks on My Radar
| Ticker | Price | Session % | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | $20.66 | -3.82% | ETH holdings 4.976M tokens, $12.9B total — fundamentals firm but BTC weakness drags |
| NVO | $40.29 | -2.14% | Oral Ozempic FDA approval momentum intact; healthcare drag from hawkish FOMC dissent |
| ZETA | $17.81 | +0.23% | Q1 prints today after close (4:30 PM ET); consensus revenue $370M (+39.9% YoY), EPS $0.13 |
| ORCL | $163.83 | -1.28% | OpenAI $300B compute deal scrutiny; Meta CAPEX surge cuts both ways for cloud bookings |
| SMR | $11.32 | -4.23% | Citi $9 Sell rating; ENTRA1 class actions and Fluor exit still weighing |
| COIN | $181.73 | -6.37% | BTC failed at $80K resistance; Q1 results due May 7 |
| LAES | $2.64 | -4.69% | Q1 revenue $4.1M (+200% YoY); micro-cap volatility plus hawkish FOMC pressure |
| ASTS | $69.85 | -2.82% | BlueBird-7 sub-optimal orbit offset by FCC 248-satellite commercial authority |
ORCL is caught in a Meta-CAPEX paradox: AI cloud demand stays validated, but hyperscaler self-build risk grows with each capex hike. Wedbush's Dan Ives keeps a $225 PT and Outperform call as the near-term defense line.
ASTS lost 2.82% as the BlueBird-7 orbital insertion failure overshadowed the FCC commercial authorization for a 248-satellite constellation with AT&T, Verizon, and FirstNet as US partners. SMR slid 4.23% as Citi's $9 Sell rating combined with ENTRA1 litigation and Fluor's $2.43B stake exit kept the bear narrative intact. COIN dropped 6.37% on BTC weakness compounded by hawkish FOMC dissent risk-off flow.
5. FOMC Watch
The April FOMC held at 3.50–3.75% with an 8-4 split — the most divided vote of the cycle. Three of the four dissenters wanted the easing-bias language stripped from the statement, signaling reluctance to cut. The decision came alongside a statement explicitly citing the Middle East war as a source of economic uncertainty.
Powell used his final meeting as chair to confirm he will step down on May 15 but remain on the Board of Governors, citing potential DOJ scrutiny over his Fed-renovation testimony as the reason. He congratulated Kevin Warsh on Senate Banking Committee advancement and emphasized that Fed independence exists to ensure analysis-based decisions. The hand-off tone read as orderly but not dovish.
Fed funds futures repriced rate-cut probability lower for the next meeting. The 10-year jumped 1.47% to 4.42%, the 5-year +2.06% to 4.07%. KRW held at 1,471.99 (-0.07%) — defending the 1,470s against a stronger dollar (DXY +0.36%) is a constructive signal, but a hawkish FOMC plus oil shock combination keeps two-way risk live.
6. Earnings Watch
Earnings hit peak velocity tonight with Apple and Amazon after the close. The April 29 prints already reset the AI-CAPEX narrative: Microsoft and Alphabet validated demand, Meta validated spending intensity.
| Company | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Rev Est | Rev Actual | Result | After-Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | $4.06 | $4.27 | $81.46B | $82.89B | EPS and revenue beat, Azure +39% | Higher |
| Alphabet | $2.62 | $5.11 | $107.1B | $109.9B | Major beat, Cloud $20B | +6% |
| Meta | $6.66 | $10.44 | ~$55B | $56.31B | EPS and revenue beat, CAPEX raised to $125–145B | -5.74% |
Alphabet was the night's biggest surprise — EPS $5.11 versus $2.62 estimates, though much of the beat reflects $36.9B in unrealized equity gains; the operating story remains strong. Meta was the night's biggest disappointment despite topline beats: the $145B CAPEX ceiling and 3.56B DAU (vs 3.62B expected) erased $103B in market cap.
| Company | Time (ET) | Consensus EPS | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | After close | $1.55 | iPhone 17 revenue, China recovery |
| Amazon | After close | $1.36 | AWS growth rate, ad revenue |
| ZETA | 4:30 PM ET | $0.13 | Revenue $370M (+39.9% YoY), Marigold integration |
Korea read-through is direct: HBM names (SK Hynix 000660, Samsung Electronics 005930) ride MSFT Azure +39% and Alphabet Cloud $20B as confirmation of the AI-CAPEX cycle continuing. Internet (NAVER 035420, Kakao 035720) faces ad-confidence risk from Meta's user miss but is supported by Alphabet's ad strength. Auto-semis (Hyundai Mobis 012330) keep a tailwind from the prior NXP guidance raise.
7. Today's Trade Setup
KOSPI is opening within a 6,600–6,700 lane with mixed directional signals. Nasdaq futures at +1.05% on Alphabet/MSFT beats argue for a tech-led bid, while Dow futures at -0.93% reflect the Meta CAPEX shock plus oil-driven cyclical pressure. Net read: large-cap memory firm, mid-cap softer.
The single most important indicator is foreigners' net buy/sell in Samsung Electronics in the 9:00–9:05 KST opening window. Samsung +1.80% has already signaled domestic absorption of the MSFT/Alphabet AI-CAPEX confirmation; sustained foreign buying would extend the move toward 230,000 KRW. SK Hynix reclaiming 1,300,000 KRW is the secondary confirmation signal.
Two sectors to focus on today: Memory semis (Samsung Electronics 005930, SK Hynix 000660) on AI-CAPEX read-through, and refining (SK Innovation 096770, S-Oil 010950) on WTI $108 sustainability. Watch defense (Hanwha Aerospace 012450) for Middle East premium.
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | KOSPI Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Foreign net buy in Samsung > +200B KRW + WTI < $105 + Nasdaq futures hold +1% | Tests 6,700 |
| Neutral | Mixed foreign flow + WTI $105–110 range + futures split holds | 6,600–6,680 range |
| Bear | Foreign outflow > 800B KRW + WTI > $110 + Meta CAPEX shock spreads | 6,520 support test |
Base case: KOSPI trades the 6,600–6,680 lane with leadership decided by Samsung's first-five-minute foreign flow as Big Tech earnings settle. International readers without KRX access can track Korea exposure via EWY (iShares MSCI Korea ETF) or the Samsung Electronics GDR.
Hormuz reset the inflation clock and Big Tech split into winners and losers overnight. Whether Korean semis can absorb the Meta CAPEX shock will be told in the first five minutes of the open.
That's the AM breakdown for April 30. Trade safe.
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