Both Indices Down: KOSPI -2.29%, KOSDAQ -2.32% — Korea Close & Tomorrow Outlook 26/05/12
Hey, Dongchun here.
Here is how the Korean market closed today.
The only thing that matters today is the KRW 6.62 trillion foreign sell tape. Korea touched 8,000 at the open and gave back 358 points within one session as a policy headline and a 1.98% KRW move hit at the same time. Watch USD/KRW above 1,489 and the US April CPI tonight — these two prints decide whether tomorrow stabilizes near 7,700 or breaks 7,500 support.
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1. Korea Market Close
KOSPI closed at 7,643.15 (-2.29%) and KOSDAQ at 1,179.29 (-2.32%). The index opened strong, touched a fresh intraday high of 7,999.67, then collapsed to a low of 7,421.71 before recovering to the 7,640s — a 578-point intraday swing.
The single biggest driver was foreign selling of KRW 6.62 trillion on KOSPI plus KRW 213.9 billion in KOSPI 200 futures. The trigger was a combination of an AI excess-profit redistribution policy debate hitting the wires and a +1.98% USD/KRW spike to 1,489.43, which arrived right at the 8,000 line and ignited profit-taking after yesterday's two-day chip rally.
Breadth was broad-based weakness. Semiconductors, batteries and internet platforms all fell together. Samsung Electronics -2.28%, SK Hynix -2.39%, LG Energy Solution -5.34%, NAVER -3.55%, Kakao -2.57% — Hyundai Motor was the only large cap to hold flat as the weaker KRW supported export earnings.
| Index | Close | Change | Intraday Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 7,643.15 | -2.29% | 7,421.71 – 7,999.67 |
| KOSDAQ | 1,179.29 | -2.32% | n/a |
2. Foreign Flow Analysis
Foreign investors sold KRW 6.62 trillion of KOSPI cash plus KRW 213.9 billion of KOSPI 200 futures. The selling concentrated on Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics preferred and SK Square — surgical hits to index-heavy semiconductor and holding names. This is a clear de-risking signal after a multi-day chip rally and ahead of the US April CPI release.
Institutions added KRW 1.42 trillion of selling on top, taking combined foreign-plus-institutional supply to KRW 8.04 trillion. Retail investors absorbed nearly all of it with KRW 7.98 trillion of net buying. The buy-the-dip reflex is intact, but the ratio of foreigners selling to retail buying is unusually one-sided.
The flow pattern tilts bearish for tomorrow's open unless USD/KRW retraces below 1,480 overnight. The US session is the leading tell — Nasdaq futures down -0.62% and VIX +2.12% indicate hedge demand is rebuilding rather than fading.
| Investor | KOSPI Net (KRW) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | -6,621 B | Heavy sell |
| Institutions | -1,419 B | Sell |
| Retail | +7,977 B | Heavy buy |
3. Sector Breakdown
The dominant theme was a one-session de-rating of semiconductors and a broad-based sell-off across high-multiple Korean tech. The AI excess-profit redistribution policy headline landed right after KOSPI tagged 8,000, and the tape gave back 358 points in a straight line.
The two laggard groups were batteries and internet platforms. LG Energy Solution (373220) closed -5.34%, NAVER (035420) -3.55% and Kakao (035720) -2.57% — battery rotation weakness persisted while internet platforms got dragged into the broader risk-off move.
The only sector that held was autos. Hyundai Motor (005380) closed flat at 0.00% as the weaker KRW (USD/KRW +1.98%) supported export-earnings translation. There was no genuine winning sector today — survival was the win.
| Sector | Direction | Key Stock | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | ▼ Weak | Samsung (005930), SK Hynix (000660) | -2.28% / -2.39% | AI policy headline, profit-taking |
| Holdings | ▼ Weak | SK Square | -5.14% | Foreign concentration sell |
| Batteries | ▼ Weak | LG Energy (373220) | -5.34% | Rotation weakness persists |
| Internet | ▼ Weak | NAVER (035420), Kakao (035720) | -3.55% / -2.57% | Platform multiple compression |
| Autos | ◼ Flat | Hyundai (005380) | 0.00% | Weaker KRW supports exports |
4. Stocks on My Radar
| Ticker | Price | Session % | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | $23.02 | +3.83% | $4B buyback and 4.8M ETH treasury structure |
| NVO | $46.40 | +0.72% | Wegovy pill US sales lag-effect |
| ZETA | $16.51 | -3.68% | Q1 rev $396M beat, profit-taking dominant |
| ORCL | $193.84 | -1.08% | RPO $523B intact, light profit-taking |
| SMR | $13.29 | +5.90% | DOE next-gen reactor loan momentum |
| COIN | $216.60 | +7.68% | BTC holds $80K, SEC supportive on-chain rules |
| LAES | $3.06 | +4.79% | Post-AGM rebound on +200% YoY rev backdrop |
| ASTS | $82.55 | +9.99% | Q1 EPS/rev miss but June BlueBird launch in focus |
BMNR extended +3.83% as the $4B authorization plus the 4.8M-ETH treasury keeps a structural bid in place. NVO ticked higher as the Wegovy oral story keeps showing through quarter on quarter.
ZETA gave back ground despite the Q1 revenue beat, suggesting profit-taking dominates near term. ORCL eased -1.08% but the AI-cloud RPO trajectory is unchanged.
SMR rallied +5.90% as DOE loan headlines and the NuScale-Ebara R&D partnership keep nuclear hype intact. COIN exploded +7.68% — Bitcoin holding $80K and SEC Chair Atkins's supportive on-chain rule comments created a clean catalyst.
LAES rebounded +4.79% as post-AGM profit-taking unwound. ASTS jumped +9.99% despite the Q1 EPS miss (-$0.66 vs -$0.20) and revenue miss ($14.7M vs $36.6M); the market priced the June BlueBird 8/9/10 Falcon 9 launch and FCC commercial authorization over the income statement.
5. Earnings Watch
Earnings matter today because KT (030200), one of the Korean telecom majors, dropped its Q1 print into the session and the operating-income miss reinforced the broader risk-off mood.
| Company | OP Consensus | OP Actual | Rev Consensus | Rev Actual | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KT (030200) | KRW 688.6 B | KRW 482.7 B | KRW 6.77 T | KRW 6.78 T | OP miss | Soft |
KT printed Q1 operating profit of KRW 482.7 billion, down 29.9% year-on-year, on subscriber churn pressure. Revenue at KRW 6.78 trillion was effectively in line. The company paired the miss with a refreshed FY2026–2028 capital return policy: 50% of standalone adjusted net income returned to shareholders, with a minimum FY2026 DPS of KRW 2,400.
For tomorrow, Korea Electric Power and SK Innovation both report on May 13. WTI sustaining above $100 reframes the SK Innovation refining-margin setup; KEPCO's cost-recovery dynamics dominate its own print. SK Holdings follows on May 21 as the holdings-company read on overall conglomerate value.
6. Tomorrow's Korea Open
US futures are soft into Korea's tomorrow open: S&P 500 futures -0.30%, Nasdaq futures -0.62%, Dow futures -0.14%. The translation for KOSPI is a flat-to-slightly-negative open with risk skewed lower if USD/KRW does not retrace below 1,480 overnight.
The dominant after-hours read-through for Korea is indirect. There is no confirmed major US semiconductor earnings tonight that directly impacts Samsung Electronics (005930) or SK Hynix (000660); the gating event is the US April CPI print scheduled overnight, which will set the Treasury and DXY tone for tomorrow's Korea session.
VIX at 18.77 (+2.12%) is the third consecutive day of upside in volatility. WTI at $100.45 (+2.43%) above the $100 line is the other risk channel — sustained oil strength feeds back into inflation expectations right as Korea is digesting an AI policy headline and a sharp KRW move.
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | KOSPI Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | US CPI in-line or below, USD/KRW retraces below 1,480, foreign sell tape eases | Tests 7,750 |
| Neutral | Futures flat-to-down, foreign flow stabilizes, semis hold | 7,600–7,700 range |
| Bear | CPI hot, USD/KRW above 1,500, foreign net sell extends another KRW 2 trillion | Test 7,500 support |
Base case is a tight 7,600–7,700 range as the market digests today's KRW 6.62 trillion foreign sell tape against pending US CPI. Readers without direct KRX access can monitor exposure through EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea) or the Samsung Electronics GDR.
Records and crashes are made on the same tape. The next session will tell us whether today was a one-day shakeout or the start of a deeper repricing.
So — where does this leave us going into tomorrow?
That's the PM breakdown for May 12. Trade safe.
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