[Dongchun Weekly] May Week 2 — AMD Data Center +57% Beat Drives KOSPI Past 7,500 Despite Record Foreign Exit

Hey, Dongchun here.

Here's how the week went.

DONGCHUN'S TAKE

The only thing that mattered this week was AMD's data center revenue +57% YoY beat landing exactly on top of foreign investors' record concentration into Korean memory mega-caps. KOSPI surged +13.63% from 6,598.87 to 7,498.00 in five sessions, while a record -12.7 trillion KRW two-day foreign exit was fully absorbed by domestic flow that bought +9.96T retail and +2.65T institutional. Next week the dominant variable is whether the SOX +5.51% Friday catalyst extends Korean memory leadership through the May 20 Nvidia print, and whether the May 12 US April CPI breaks the no-landing macro setup.

The Week in Numbers

The week was a decisive risk-on print with semiconductors driving everything. The single biggest catalyst was AMD's Q1 data center revenue of $5.8B (+57% YoY versus +51.5% consensus) on May 5, validating the AI capex thesis that drove a +9.7% weekly SOX surge across three separate single-session double-digit rally days.

US index breadth was constructive without being uniform. Russell 2000 +1.72% participated alongside Nasdaq +4.51% and S&P 500 +2.34%, but the Dow's +0.22% lag reflected industrial and financial sector weakness on Hormuz-driven crude swings.

Korea outperformed the US tape by an enormous margin. KOSPI's +13.63% weekly gain dwarfed S&P 500 +2.34%, driven by foreign concentration into Samsung Electronics +14.41% and SK Hynix +10.64% on May 6 — both posting their largest single-day gains in years. EWY iShares Korea ETF logged +7.61% weekly, with $409M in record outflows offset by aggressive 2026-to-date +75% KOSPI gain.

The macro variable that mattered most was crude. WTI fell -9.69% from $104.84 to $94.68 as US-Iran ceasefire progress dissolved the Hormuz premium that had spiked on May 4, and the resulting 10Y yield easing to 4.36% removed the inflation rerating risk that briefly crystallized mid-week.

Table 1 — Weekly index performance:

Index	Week Open	Week Close	Weekly %	Note
S&P 500	7,229.66	7,398.93	+2.34%	Fresh records on AMD beat
Nasdaq	25,114.44	26,247.08	+4.51%	SOX-led leadership
Dow Jones	49,499.27	49,609.16	+0.22%	Industrial drag
Russell 2000	2,812.85	2,861.21	+1.72%	Breadth confirmation
KOSPI	6,598.87	7,498.00	+13.63%	Historic surge through 7,000 and 7,500
KOSDAQ	1,192.35	1,207.72	+1.29%	Mega-cap concentration

Table 2 — Macro Pulse:

Indicator	Start of Week	End of Week	Weekly Change	Market Read
US 10Y Yield	4.45%	4.36%	-9bp	Inflation path eased
DXY	98.48	97.84	-0.65%	EM-friendly weak dollar
VIX (weekly high)	18.29 (5/4)	17.19	Stable sub-20	No panic regime
EWY	$176.75	$190.20	+7.61%	Foreign equity demand intact

3 Big Themes of the Week

Theme 1: AMD Data Center +57% YoY Beat Confirms AI Capex Thesis

AMD reported Q1 2026 revenue of $10.3B (+38% YoY, beating $9.85B consensus) and EPS $1.37 versus $1.27 estimate on May 5, with data center revenue of $5.8B printing +57% YoY against the +51.5% consensus growth rate. Quarterly free cash flow of $2.6B more than tripled YoY, the sharpest profitability inflection of the 2026 cycle so far.

The market reaction was decisive — AMD itself rallied +17.77% on May 6 with continuation strength, Super Micro added +24.5% on its own beat, Nvidia +5.5%, and SOX rallied +4.23%, +4.48%, and +5.51% across three of four sessions. Korean memory mega-caps were the cleanest beneficiary, with Samsung Electronics +14.41% and SK Hynix +10.64% on May 6 confirming foreign 1.7T KRW concentration into SK Hynix from May 4.

Theme 2: Foreign -12.7 Trillion KRW Two-Day Exit Met by Domestic Bid

Foreign investors flipped from being net concentrated buyers (+3.018T on May 4, single-day record-tier on May 6) to dumping a single-session record -7.15T on May 7 followed by -5.59T on May 8 — a cumulative -12.7T two-day reversal. The selling concentrated in Samsung Electronics on the back end, while SK Hynix +1.93% diverged cleanly on May 8 even as Samsung fell -1.10%.

Domestic flow absorbed the entire foreign exit and extended the rally. Retail printed +9.96T combined across the two days while institutions added +2.65T, lifting KOSPI to fresh records at 7,490.05 (5/7) and 7,498.00 (5/8) despite the foreign shock. The structural signal — domestic conviction matching foreign exit at this scale — has not been seen at this magnitude in years.

Theme 3: US-Iran Ceasefire Progress and the WTI -9.69% Crude Reset

The week opened with a Middle East shock — UAE intercepted Iranian missiles, US frigates exchanged fire near Hormuz, and Brent crude jumped +5.24% to $113.84 on May 4. The VIX spiked +7.65% to 18.29 and the Dow fell -1.13% as the inflation rerating risk briefly crystallized through 10Y yields rising to 4.45%.

The reversal was equally decisive. US officials confirmed Iran ceasefire continuity on May 6 and an Axios report of a one-page peace agreement nearing conclusion drove WTI -6.20% on 5/6 and another -6.19% on 5/7 — a cumulative -9.69% weekly drop that fully unwound the Hormuz premium. The macro consequence was 10Y yields easing back to 4.36%, supporting the AI infrastructure rally that ran in parallel.

Weekend Catch-up

US April nonfarm payrolls printed +115K versus +65K consensus on Friday, with unemployment steady at 4.3% and wage growth a contained +0.2% MoM. The no-landing read sent 10Y yields lower by 0.64% to 4.36% and reinforced AI capex visibility. Monday's Korea open should benefit from the wage-stable jobs print as a fundamental anchor for foreign-flow stabilization.

AMD signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Rackspace Technology (RXT +12.5%) on May 8 to build a sovereign-AI cloud for regulated industries. The partnership extends AMD's AI infrastructure thesis directly into the enterprise software complex and was a primary driver of Friday's SOX +5.51% surge. Korea memory mega-caps Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) face a clean gap-up tailwind at Monday's open.

NuScale Power (SMR) delivered Q1 revenue of $565K versus $14.67M consensus (a 96.15% miss) on May 7, sending the stock -6.95% in regular session and another -6.68% in after-hours. The miss flowed through directly to Korean SMR-themed names — Doosan Enerbility (034020) -4.99% and HD Hyundai Heavy (329180) -5.05% — and the overhang extends into next week's Korean industrial complex.

ASTS announced a mid-June Falcon 9 launch for three BlueBird satellites and revealed a Texas 500,000-square-foot manufacturing facility tour on May 8, sending the stock +14.84%. Rakuten's stake-selling cycle reportedly ending removes a major supply overhang. The May 11 Q1 business update call is the next catalyst — Zacks consensus revenue $38.24M, EPS -$0.23.

Sector & Foreign Flow

The strongest US sector this week was unambiguously semiconductors, with SOX surging roughly +9.7% on three separate single-session double-digit rally days. The catalysts stacked — AMD's data center +57% YoY beat, Micron hitting a fresh all-time high of $683.09, Intel's +131% one-month accumulated rally, AMD-Rackspace sovereign-AI MOU, and the May 20 Nvidia earnings setup. The translation to Korean stocks was direct, lifting Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) into record territory.

The weakest US sector was energy and refining as WTI crashed -9.69% on US-Iran ceasefire progress. Korean refiners S-Oil (010950) and SK Innovation (096770) faced compressed crack spreads, and the SMR/nuclear theme separately collapsed after NuScale's 96.15% revenue miss. Doosan Enerbility (034020) and HD Hyundai Heavy (329180) bore the worst of the readthrough on Friday at -4.99% and -5.05%.

Foreign investor flow was the cleanest signal of regime asymmetry. Foreigners bought aggressively early in the week (3T+ on May 4, single-day record-tier on May 6) before flipping to a -12.7T two-day exit on May 7-8, with Samsung Electronics (005930), SK Hynix (000660), and Hyundai Motor (005380) the top concentrated names. Memory leadership has the most follow-through potential into next week given Nvidia's May 20 print.

Sector	US Weekly	Direction	Korea Linked	Korea Weekly	Watch Stock
Semiconductors	SOX ~+9.7%	▲	Samsung (005930), SK Hynix (000660)	Strong	SK Hynix +14.3% (week)
Big Tech / AI	Nasdaq +4.51%	▲	NAVER (035420), Kakao (035720)	Mixed	NAVER +3.61% (5/8)
Energy	Weak	▼	S-Oil (010950), GS Holdings (078930)	Weak	S-Oil margin compression
Financials	Mixed	▶	KB (105560), Shinhan (055550)	Strong	Brokerages +14.30% (5/6)
EV / Battery	Flat	▶	LG Energy (373220), Samsung SDI (006400)	Weak	LG Energy loss-swing

Crypto Corner & Kimchi Premium

Bitcoin's weekly narrative was a cautious consolidation around the $80,000 line. The price ranged between $78,100 and $82,800 with a weekly close near $80,200, supported by US Clarity Act legislative progress and BTC ETF cumulative net inflows of $623M. The single biggest single-day move came on May 8 when BTC reclaimed $80K as Bitcoin fundamentals decoupled from the Coinbase Q1 earnings miss.

Ethereum and Solana diverged from Bitcoin in opposite directions. Solana posted a +9% weekly gain — a clean BTC outperformance — though weekly active addresses fell from 5.01M in February to 2.89M, signaling on-chain activity softening. Ethereum saw lower selling pressure rather than active demand, and BMNR's disclosure of 5.18M tokens ($10.2B) reaffirmed corporate ETH treasury accumulation as a structural bid.

The Kimchi Premium remained near zero throughout the week. Bitcoin Kimchi Premium has hovered around +0.57% (early April) to under 1% as Korean regulators' pressure on Bithumb for AML failures kept domestic retail demand subdued. The reading signals weak local retail conviction relative to global benchmarks — historically a warning that Korean crypto-linked equities (KakaoBank 323410) lack a domestic momentum bid.

The Fear & Greed Index printed 49 (Fear) on May 9, down from 71 (Greed) one week prior — a 22-point sentiment swing toward caution. Total crypto market cap stood at $2.74T with BTC dominance at 58.4%, reflecting a measured rotation rather than altcoin froth. Next week's signal is whether BTC holds $80K through the May 12 US CPI print.

Coin	Week Open	Week Close	Weekly %	Key Driver
BTC	~$78,100 (low)	~$80,200	+2-3% range	Clarity Act, ETF inflows $623M
ETH	Stable	Stable	Mild positive	BMNR 5.18M token disclosure
SOL	-	-	+9%	Outperformance, on-chain softening

Kimchi Premium: ~+0.5% (estimated) as of 2026-05-09 KST Fear & Greed: 49 — Fear

This Week's Prediction Scorecard

Overall verdict on this week's prediction accuracy is strong on direction and weaker on flow magnitude. Roughly 7 of 10 named scenario calls landed cleanly, with Tuesday PM through Wednesday's KOSPI 7,000 breakthrough call the most decisive directional win and Friday's V-shape recovery from a -2% gap-down the second cleanest base case match.

The single best prediction this week was Tuesday PM's call that an AMD data center beat would trigger a KOSPI 7,000 breakout — Wednesday's actual print of +6.45% to 7,384.56 with intraday 7,426.60 high exceeded even the bull-case scenario. Tuesday's framing that SK Hynix's 1,447,000 won close was the trigger price was confirmed by Wednesday's +10.64% to 1,601,000 won, mathematically validating the foreign-flow-meets-fundamentals thesis.

The biggest miss was the underestimation of foreign sell-program magnitude. Thursday PM expected a -3T-class foreign sell as the bear scenario trigger; the actual -7.15T print was 2.4x larger and the cumulative -12.7T two-day exit was unprecedented. Despite missing the magnitude, the index direction call (KOSPI absorbs and holds 7,400+) survived intact thanks to underestimated domestic bid strength — next week's lesson is to pair flow-magnitude scenarios with domestic-bid absorption capacity.

Day	Post	Key Prediction	Actual Result	Verdict
Mon	PM	KOSPI 7,000 breakout via Nasdaq futures hold	Nasdaq fell next session, neutral path	△
Tue	AM	KOSDAQ test of 1,180 on Hormuz risk-off	KOSDAQ -2.29% to 1,192.35	✅
Tue	PM	KOSPI 7,000 trigger if AMD beats data center	+6.45% to 7,384.56, base exceeded	✅
Wed	AM	SK Hynix gap-up above 1,447,000 won	Closed 1,601,000 won (+10.64%)	✅
Wed	PM	KOSPI 7,450-7,500 if futures hold + earnings beats	7,490.05 record, beats majority	✅
Thu	AM	New record high attempt on +1.97% Nasdaq futures	Record set despite -7.15T foreign exit	△
Thu	PM	7,300 test on -3T foreign + VIX 19+	-5.59T but VIX 17.08, 7,498 close	△
Fri	AM	Soft gap-down + 7,300 test on SOX -2.72%	-2% intraday low, V-shape to 7,498	✅
Fri	PM	7,550-7,600 if foreign selling moderates	Awaiting Monday verification	TBD

Next Week's Playbook

The single most important variable to watch next week is the May 12 US April CPI release at 8:30 AM ET — consensus is headline +0.6% MoM and +3.7% YoY with core +0.3% MoM and +2.7% YoY. Energy prices have spiked through the Middle East cycle, which makes a hot headline print the realistic risk that breaks the no-landing macro setup the week's rally rode on. A core CPI beat would force a rapid 10Y yield repricing and pressure the AI infrastructure rally that drove SOX +9.7% this week.

The US market direction call is Cautious-Neutral with an upward bias if CPI cooperates. SOXX RSI above 80 signals a single-session profit-taking risk even with Nvidia's May 20 print supporting base demand for memory exposure. The KOSPI directional call is Neutral with a 7,500 retest favored if Monday's open shows Samsung Electronics foreign flow stabilizing — a bull condition is foreign net buying the first 30 minutes, while a bear condition is another -3T foreign sell extending the exit into a third session.

The Monday open indicator that matters most is the first 30 minutes of foreign net flow on Samsung Electronics (005930). The week's -12.7T two-day exit concentrated in Samsung specifically — a flip to net buying on May 11 confirms a regime change, while continued outflow signals the structural foreign rebalance is ongoing. The underappreciated risk is a hot CPI print breaking AI rally momentum and the underappreciated opportunity is the domestic bid base proven to absorb +12T in foreign supply being a structural support that didn't exist before.

Date	Event	Consensus / Expected	Market Impact
5/11 (Mon)	ASTS Q1 update call, KOSPI reopen	Foreign flow validation	Memory mega-cap gap direction
5/12 (Tue)	US April CPI / KT Q1 earnings	Headline +3.7% YoY, Core +2.7% YoY	Rate path, no-landing test
5/13 (Wed)	KEPCO + SK Innovation Q1 earnings	KEPCO revenue 24.73T KRW	Cap-weighted variance window
5/14 (Thu)	US PPI / Initial jobless claims	Labor market check	Risk-on continuity test
5/15 (Fri)	US April retail sales / Michigan sentiment	Consumer momentum	Cycle confirmation
5/20 (Wed)	Nvidia Q1 earnings (after close)	Revenue $78.8B (+78.6% YoY), EPS $1.77	Memory mega-cap base bid

DONGCHUN'S WRAP

This was the week Korean memory came home with a 12.7 trillion won foreign exit on its back, and the domestic bid did not blink once.

출처

So — what shape is next week taking?

That's the weekly wrap for 2026-05-10. Trade safe.

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