US stocks closed at fresh record highs on May 14 as Cisco's | Nasdaq +0.88%, S&P +0.00% — Korea Open Preview 26/05/15
Hey, Dongchun here.
The one fact that defines today is that AI infrastructure demand was proven again in hard numbers. Cisco lifted its AI and hyperscaler order guidance to $9 billion from $5 billion, and that warmth spread across software and semiconductors to push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs — and it happened while the 10-year yield fell to 4.46%, which makes the rally high quality. The single thing to watch in the Korea session is whether foreigners absorb this AI warmth as semiconductor buying or extend the selling that has run all through May.
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1. US Session Recap
The S&P 500 rose +0.77% to 7,501.24 and the Nasdaq gained +0.88% to 26,635.22, both setting fresh record closing highs. The Dow Jones added +0.75% to 50,063.46, reclaiming the 50,000 mark, while the Russell 2000 rose +0.67% to 2,863.09 — a broad advance with large caps and small caps moving together.
The single biggest catalyst was Cisco's earnings. The networking giant reported a beat on both EPS and revenue, but the real driver was AI infrastructure and hyperscaler orders reaching $5.3 billion year-to-date, prompting Cisco to raise full-year order guidance to $9 billion from $5 billion. That re-confirmed the hyperscaler capex cycle and spread buying across software and semiconductors.
Breadth was constructive. The Russell 2000's +0.67% gain alongside the Nasdaq's +0.88% showed the move was not purely mega-cap driven, and the VIX fell -3.41% to 17.26, signaling a calm risk backdrop.
For Korea, the read-through is direct. AI infrastructure strength supports HBM and server DRAM demand, which underpins the mid-term earnings case for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,501.24 | +0.77% |
| Nasdaq | 26,635.22 | +0.88% |
| Dow Jones | 50,063.46 | +0.75% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,863.09 | +0.67% |
2. Korea Market Snapshot
In the prior Korea session the KOSPI rose +2.63% to 7,844.01, a strong advance, while the KOSDAQ slipped -0.20% to 1,176.93 — a clear split between large caps and small caps. The KOSPI move keeps the index near its record-high zone.
Foreign investors have been heavy net sellers through May, offloading roughly KRW 20 trillion on the KOSPI over four sessions through May 13, with a notable rotation out of large-cap chipmakers and into robotics and platform names. Retail investors have been absorbing that supply.
The combined pattern means the next session again hinges on the foreign-versus-retail tug-of-war. A pause in foreign selling, rather than a retail-only bid, is the signal that would confirm a more durable move.
| Index | Prev Close | Change | Key Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 7,844.01 | +2.63% | resistance near record-high zone |
| KOSDAQ | 1,176.93 | -0.20% | support near 1,170 |
| Investor | KOSPI Net | KOSDAQ Net | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | Net seller | Net seller | Heavy selling through May, ~KRW 20T over 4 sessions to May 13 |
| Institutions | Mixed | Mixed | Small size, no clear direction |
| Retail | Net buyer | Net buyer | Absorbing foreign supply |
3. Korea Sector Breakdown
The dominant theme of the US session was AI infrastructure demand, driven by Cisco's earnings rather than macro or policy. The hyperscaler capex cycle was re-confirmed and the warmth spread into software and semiconductors.
The top gaining Korean sectors should be internet and semiconductors. In the prior session Kakao (035720) jumped +6.98% and NAVER (035420) rose +5.71%, far outpacing the index, while Samsung Electronics (005930) gained +4.23% on US chip strength.
The laggards were chip-adjacent divergence and small caps. SK Hynix (000660) decoupled at -0.30% despite Samsung's gain, and the KOSDAQ slipped -0.20% as the rally stayed concentrated in large caps. Watch whether the Cisco-driven AI warmth pulls SK Hynix back in line today.
| Sector | US Session | Korea Stock | Korea Move | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | ▲ SOX +0.46% | Samsung Elec (005930), SK Hynix (000660) | +4.23% / -0.30% | KODEX Semiconductor |
| Internet | ▲ Software strong | Kakao (035720), NAVER (035420) | +6.98% / +5.71% | Platform momentum |
| Batteries | ▲ Risk-on | LG Energy (373220) | +2.79% | TIGER 2차전지 |
| Autos | ▬ Flat | Hyundai Motor (005380) | +0.28% | Won/dollar at 1,492 |
4. Stocks on My Radar
| Ticker | Price | Session % | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | $22.00 | +3.87% | ETH holdings 5.21M tokens; $13.4B total assets |
| NVO | $45.80 | -2.72% | High-dose Wegovy 7.2mg data digested; profit-taking |
| ZETA | $16.58 | +3.37% | Cisco beat lifts software sector risk appetite |
| ORCL | $195.61 | +3.08% | OCI Enterprise AI adopted by DoD and SoftBank |
| SMR | $12.06 | +0.84% | Q1 revenue $0.6M; Citi PT $9→$7, Northland $21→$19 |
| COIN | $212.01 | +5.06% | Senate Clarity Act momentum; Redburn PT $254→$263 |
| LAES | $3.09 | +4.39% | Quantum-resistant chip pipeline intact; Buy consensus |
| ASTS | $83.01 | +10.96% | AT&T/T-Mobile/Verizon satellite JV; BlackRock stake +22% |
BMNR rose +3.87% as the company reported 5.21 million ETH and $13.4 billion in total crypto, cash and moonshot assets; it is targeting 5% of all ETH while slowing new buying to optimize MAVAN staking yields. NVO fell -2.72% as profit-taking dominated even after high-dose Wegovy 7.2mg showed an average 27.7% body-weight loss at 72 weeks.
ZETA gained +3.37% as Cisco's earnings beat and guidance raise lifted risk appetite across software. ORCL rose +3.08% on OCI Enterprise AI adoption by the US Department of Defense and SoftBank, plus a growing RPO backlog and analyst target hikes.
SMR edged up +0.84% despite a weak Q1 — revenue of $0.6 million and a $46.7 million loss — with Citi cutting its target to $7 and Northland to $19. COIN jumped +5.06% on regulatory momentum as the Senate Banking Committee discussed the Clarity Act, alongside a Rothschild Redburn target raise to $263.
LAES rose +4.39% with its quantum-resistant security chip pipeline intact and supply stabilizing after its AGM. ASTS surged +10.96% on a satellite direct-to-device JV proposal from AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon, a 22% BlackRock stake increase, and Roth Capital's target raise to $108 from $82.50.
5. Earnings Watch
Earnings matter today because Cisco's report re-confirmed the AI infrastructure capex cycle that is driving the entire tech tape.
| Company | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Rev Est | Rev Actual | Result | After-Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cisco | $1.04 | $1.06 | $15.56B | $15.84B | beat / beat | +15~17% |
The standout was Cisco's order book: AI infrastructure and hyperscaler orders reached $5.3 billion year-to-date, prompting a full-year guidance raise to $9 billion from $5 billion, and the stock rallied even as the company announced fewer than 4,000 job cuts.
| Company | Report Date | Consensus EPS | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK Holdings (034730) | 2026-05-21 | KRW 11,019 | Refining/energy flow-through from SK Innovation Q1 |
The Korea read-through is direct. Cisco's surging hyperscaler orders point to expanding capex that feeds HBM and server DRAM demand, supporting the mid-term earnings case for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
6. Options Expiry
Today is US monthly options expiration, the third Friday of the month, when large S&P 500-linked options positions roll off. Market-maker hedging flows around expiry can temporarily widen volatility.
Post-expiry, the first trading session typically sees options-related supply distortion clear and volatility compress. Korea faces gap risk from US expiry positioning — with overnight futures strong the gap risk skews up, but intraday swings could widen if expiry volatility overlaps.
7. Today's Trade Setup
Based on the US record close and overnight futures up +0.7~0.8%, the KOSPI is set to open with a gap up. The primary driver is the Cisco-led AI infrastructure rally, which flows to Korean chipmakers via the ADR channel.
The single most important indicator to watch is foreign net buying or selling in Samsung Electronics (005930) at the 9:00–9:05 AM KST open. Foreign flow in Samsung leads KOSPI direction because Samsung and SK Hynix together make up nearly half the index and an even larger share of foreign holdings — a pause in the May-long foreign selling streak here would confirm the move.
Two sectors to focus on today are semiconductors — Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) — and internet — NAVER (035420) and Kakao (035720). Both are the most direct beneficiaries of the US AI infrastructure and software strength.
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | KOSPI Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Overnight futures hold strong AND foreign selling streak pauses | Gap up holds, tests record-high zone |
| Neutral | Futures strong but foreign selling continues, retail absorbs | Gap up open then range-bound |
| Bear | USD/KRW stuck above 1,490 AND foreign selling accelerates | Gap-up gains given back |
The base case is a gap-up open that then tests whether foreign investors will pause their selling. Readers without direct KRX access can track this via EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea) or the Samsung Electronics GDR.
Yields came down and AI orders were proven in hard numbers. The only question left is when foreign investors finally take that warmth and turn it into semiconductor buying.
So — which way does Korea swing at the open today?
That's the AM breakdown for May 15. Trade safe.
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