US stocks pulled back from record highs on May 7 (S&P -0.38% | Nasdaq -0.13%, S&P -0.38% — Korea Open Preview 26/05/08
Hey, Dongchun here.
The only thing that matters today is that SMR and Coinbase both delivered earnings disasters, breaking the risk-on rhythm that drove last week's parabolic semiconductor rally. This matters because the SOX -2.72% / Russell -1.63% combo signals concentrated profit-taking in exactly the segments — small caps and memory-adjacent names — that drove KOSPI to record highs the day before. Watch the first 30 minutes of foreign flow on Samsung Electronics: yesterday's -7.15T sell program needs to fade or KOSPI loses its domestic-bid support narrative fast.
Previous post: Read it →
1. US Session Recap
The S&P 500 closed at 7,337.11 (-0.38%), Nasdaq at 25,806.20 (-0.13%), Dow Jones at 49,596.97 (-0.63%), and Russell 2000 at 2,839.63 (-1.63%) — all four major indices reversed lower one session after setting fresh all-time highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) led the decline at -2.72%, marking the first meaningful pullback after a near 50% rally over four weeks.
The single biggest catalyst was profit-taking concentrated in the segment that led last week's run. Semiconductors saw broad selling in Broadcom, Micron, and AMD after the parabolic May 5–6 leg, while Caterpillar (-3.37%) and JPMorgan (-2.74%) led Dow declines on a softer Iran-deal narrative as Tehran appeared to push back on the US one-page peace memorandum.
Breadth was decisively negative — Russell 2000's -1.63% drop versus Nasdaq's -0.13% mega-cap-cushioned decline showed a textbook small-cap underperformance pattern tied to the 10-year yield's +0.83% rise to 4.39%. VIX held at 17.08 (-1.78%), still well within risk-on territory and signaling profit-taking rather than panic.
The Korea read-through is direct and negative for memory mega-caps. SOX -2.72% historically transmits to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at the open with a one-day lag, and the SMR / Coinbase earnings double-miss adds pressure on Korean SMR-themed names (Doosan Enerbility) and crypto-adjacent exposure (KakaoBank by sympathy).
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,337.11 | -0.38% |
| Nasdaq | 25,806.20 | -0.13% |
| Dow Jones | 49,596.97 | -0.63% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,839.63 | -1.63% |
2. Korea Market Snapshot
KOSPI sits at 7,384.56 and KOSDAQ at 1,210.17 in the latest snapshot. Korean memory leaders are holding the post-rally bid: Samsung Electronics 271,500 KRW (+2.07%) and SK Hynix 1,654,000 KRW (+3.31%) reflect lingering follow-through from the May 6 SOX +4.48% session.
Foreign investors dumped a single-session record -7.15 trillion KRW on KOSPI in yesterday's tape — the largest single-day foreign sell print of 2026. The reversal scale was roughly 2.3x the prior day's +3.1T buy and signaled aggressive locking-in of Samsung +14.41% / SK Hynix +10.64% gains from May 6.
Domestic flow fully absorbed the foreign exit: institutions printed +1.10T and retail +5.99T on KOSPI for a combined +7T offset. Whether this domestic bid persists today as US semis pull back is the single most important variable to watch in the open.
| Index | Prev Close | Change | Key Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 7,384.56 | +6.45% | 7,300 support / 7,500 resistance |
| KOSDAQ | 1,210.17 | -0.29% | 1,200 support |
| Investor | KOSPI Net | KOSDAQ Net | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | -7,154 B KRW | Net sell | Single-session record sell |
| Institutions | +1,098 B KRW | Mixed | Defensive accumulation |
| Retail | +5,991 B KRW | Net buy | Aggressive dip-bid into record |
3. Korea Sector Breakdown
The dominant theme is a momentum break in the semiconductor leadership trade. SOX -2.72% delivered the first meaningful pullback after a four-week +50% rally, and the SMR / Coinbase earnings double-miss added a separate risk-asset shock on top of the broader profit-taking rotation.
Korean upside leaders likely include autos with Hyundai Motor (005380) at 572,000 KRW (+4.00%) on continued foreign-rotation flow, and silver-linked plays sympathetic to the +3.45% silver session. Memory mega-caps Samsung Electronics (005930) +2.07% and SK Hynix (000660) +3.31% are showing post-rally cushion despite SOX weakness.
Korean downside leaders likely include semiconductors via SOX -2.72% direct transmission, small caps and KOSDAQ via Russell 2000 -1.63% sympathy, and internet platforms with Kakao (035720) -2.27% post-earnings residual drag on NAVER (035420) -0.24%.
| Sector | US Session | Korea Stock | Korea Move | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | ▼ SOX -2.72% | Samsung (005930), SK Hynix (000660) | +2.07% / +3.31% | KODEX Semiconductor pressure risk |
| Autos | Mixed | Hyundai (005380) | +4.00% | Foreign rotation flow |
| Internet | ▼ Weak | Kakao (035720), NAVER (035420) | -2.27% / -0.24% | Earnings drag continuation |
| Small Caps | ▼ Russell -1.63% | KOSDAQ broad | -0.29% | Risk-off sympathy |
4. Stocks on My Radar
| Ticker | Price | Session % | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | $22.00 | -3.97% | Crypto-adjacent weakness from Coinbase miss |
| NVO | $45.80 | +0.09% | Wegovy pill momentum holds, flat session |
| ZETA | $17.28 | +0.29% | Software complex modest rebound |
| ORCL | $194.59 | +0.29% | Wedbush $225 PT support, defensive in tech selloff |
| SMR | $12.58 | -6.95% | Q1 EPS -$0.14 miss, revenue 96.15% miss, AH -6.68% |
| COIN | $192.96 | -2.53% | Q1 EPS -$1.49 vs +$0.27 consensus, AH -4% |
| LAES | $3.05 | -8.13% | Post-AGM profit-taking, 90-day -39.65% trend |
| ASTS | $65.35 | -7.54% | BlueBird-7 satellite launch failure, Alphabet IPO concerns |
SMR -6.95% in regular session and another -6.68% after hours after delivering Q1 revenue of just $565,000 versus $14.67M consensus — a 96.15% miss tied to RoPower licensing rolloff and Fluor's FEED2 completion. Pre-earnings positioning that drove the stock +13.90% on May 6 unwound completely in two sessions.
Coinbase posted a stunning -$1.49 EPS versus +$0.27 consensus on revenue of $1.41B versus $1.52B expected, with transaction revenue at $755.8M missing the $805.2M estimate. The miss came alongside a 14% workforce reduction (~700 jobs) announced by CEO Brian Armstrong, citing cost overruns from the prior bull cycle.
ASTS -7.54% on the Blue Origin BlueBird-7 launch anomaly that prevents the satellite from reaching its target orbit, with BofA's Michael Funk warning the deployment shortfall could be ~7 satellites against a 45-satellite year-end target. LAES -8.13% as the 2026 AGM proxy resolution passage triggered post-event profit-taking against a 90-day -39.65% trend.
5. Earnings Watch
Earnings tonight matter because two highly-watched after-hours releases — NuScale Power and Coinbase — both delivered material misses that risk transmitting into Korean SMR-theme and crypto-adjacent names at the open.
| Company | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Rev Est | Rev Actual | Result | After-Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NuScale Power (SMR) | -$0.13 | -$0.14 | $14.67M | $0.57M | EPS + 96.15% rev miss | -6.68% |
| Coinbase (COIN) | $0.27 | -$1.49 | $1.52B | $1.41B | Both miss | -4.00% |
The biggest miss by magnitude was SMR's revenue at 96.15% below consensus, driven by RoPower licensing rolloff and the completion of Fluor's FEED2 work in Q4 2025 leaving Q1 2026 with no major revenue catalyst. Coinbase's swing to a -$1.49 EPS versus +$0.27 consensus came alongside transaction revenue of $755.8M versus $805.2M expected and a 14% workforce reduction announcement.
| Company | Time (KST) | Consensus EPS | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| KT (030200) | 2026-05-12 | 1,391 KRW | Telecom margin trajectory, ARPU |
| KEPCO (015760) | 2026-05-13 | 3,743 KRW | Tariff revisions, fuel cost hedge |
| SK Innovation (096770) | 2026-05-13 | 2,320 KRW | Refining margins, battery losses |
| SK Inc. (034730) | 2026-05-21 | 11,019 KRW | Holdings NAV, semiconductor unit |
Korea read-through: SMR's 96.15% revenue miss is a direct overhang for Doosan Enerbility (034020), and Coinbase's miss adds pressure to KakaoBank (323410) by sympathy. Korea memory mega-caps face SOX -2.72% transmission risk separately, while next week's KT, KEPCO, and SK Innovation prints concentrate large-cap earnings-day variance into a tight Tue–Wed window.
6. Today's Trade Setup
KOSPI is set for a soft gap-down open with overnight S&P futures -0.48%, Nasdaq -0.28%, and Dow -0.75% all extending the regular-session decline. The primary driver is concentrated profit-taking in semiconductors (SOX -2.72%) flowing through to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at the open.
The single most important indicator to watch is foreign net flow in Samsung Electronics in the 9:00–9:05 AM KST opening cross. Yesterday's -7.15T foreign sell print needs to either pause or moderate quickly — Samsung flow at the open historically leads KOSPI direction by 30–60 minutes, and a fresh aggressive sell would signal the foreign exit is multi-session.
Top two sectors to focus on today: Semiconductors with Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) facing direct SOX -2.72% transmission risk, and SMR-theme names with Doosan Enerbility (034020) facing direct read-through pressure from NuScale's 96.15% revenue miss. Auto names led by Hyundai Motor (005380) remain the main alternative bid candidate given USD/KRW won strength of -2.00%.
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | KOSPI Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Foreign net sell decelerates below -1T, USD/KRW breaks 1,440, memory holds bid | 7,500 retest |
| Neutral | Soft gap-down, foreign selling moderates, memory flat | 7,350–7,450 range |
| Bear | Foreign net sell exceeds another -2T, semis gap down, VIX spikes above 19 | 7,300 support test |
Base case is a soft gap-down followed by foreign-flow validation in the first 30 minutes — yesterday's -7.15T print sets a high bar but normalization is the more probable path. International readers without direct KRX access can track iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) or the Samsung Electronics GDR for clean exposure.
Two earnings misses can break a rally as fast as one beat can build it, and tonight's tape proved that conviction in record highs has a price. The next test is whether Korea's domestic bid that absorbed 7 trillion in foreign selling can absorb a second wave with US semis no longer leading.
So — which way does Korea swing at the open today?
That's the AM breakdown for May 08. Trade safe.
Comments
Post a Comment