Apple's record Q2 FY26 print of $111.2B revenue and EPS $2.01 | Nasdaq +0.89%, S&P +1.02% — Korea Open Preview 26/05/01
Hey, Dongchun here.
The single most important fact today is that Apple's blowout — $111.2B revenue, EPS $2.01, iPhone +22% YoY — flipped the entire post-FOMC narrative in one print. The reason it matters is that it stacks on top of an in-line PCE (3.5% headline / 3.2% core), Brent crashing 5.38% to $111.68, and Russell 2000 leading at +2.21% — a true broadening rally, not a Mag7-only move. Watch one signal at the May 4 KOSPI open: whether foreigners return to Samsung Electronics in the first five minutes after a 1.68 trillion KRW dump on April 30.
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1. US Session Recap
The S&P 500 closed at 7,209.01 (+1.02%) for a fresh record, Nasdaq at 24,892.31 (+0.89%), Dow at 49,652.14 (+1.62%) for its biggest daily gain in seven months, and the Russell 2000 at 2,799.91 (+2.21%) — the small-cap index actually leading mega-caps. VIX collapsed -10.21% to 16.89, and SOX added 2.26% to 10,503.70.
The single biggest catalyst was a clean macro–earnings double. March PCE printed in line at 3.5% headline and 3.2% core, removing the immediate hawkish-FOMC overhang, and Apple's after-close print delivered $111.2B revenue versus ~$110B consensus with iPhone revenue up 22% YoY — a March-quarter record powered by the iPhone 17 lineup.
Breadth was unusually wide. Russell beating Nasdaq by 1.3 percentage points, the 5-year yield falling 1.03% to 4.02%, and gold +2.13% / silver +4.28% all moving together signals a coordinated rotation back into risk on rate-cut hope reflation, not a Mag7 echo.
Korea read-through is constructive for memory and tech. Apple's iPhone strength plus Amazon's already-released AWS +28% YoY combine to a double-confirm for HBM and NAND demand at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, while Brent's -5.38% slide cools the inflation-reacceleration channel that had pressured KRW.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,209.01 | +1.02% |
| Nasdaq | 24,892.31 | +0.89% |
| Dow Jones | 49,652.14 | +1.62% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,799.91 | +2.21% |
2. Korea Market Snapshot
Korea is closed May 1 for Workers' Day. Reference levels are the April 30 closes: KOSPI 6,598.87 (-1.38%) and KOSDAQ 1,192.35 (-2.29%). The 6,600 line was barely defended after the index reversed sharply from an intraday record at 6,750.27.
Foreigners net sold 1,680 billion KRW on KOSPI on April 30 — the largest single-session outflow this April — concentrated in Hyundai Motor (-4.50%), NAVER (-4.09%), and Samsung Electronics (-2.43%). The trigger combined hawkish FOMC dissent, an LG Energy Solution 207.8 billion KRW operating loss versus 465 billion KRW consensus, and KRW weakening to 1,487.38 (+1.05%).
Retail absorbed 1,810 billion KRW on KOSPI and 654 billion KRW on KOSDAQ, the classic foreign-sell-retail-catch pattern. The combined flow tells us that the May 4 reopen is binary: either Apple's blowout pulls foreigners back into memory names, or another outflow leg tests 6,520.
| Index | Prev Close | Change | Key Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,598.87 | -1.38% | 6,600 support / 6,520 next test |
| KOSDAQ | 1,192.35 | -2.29% | 1,200 broken / 1,180 next test |
| Investor | KOSPI Net | KOSDAQ Net | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | -1,680 B KRW | -300 B KRW | Largest April outflow |
| Institutions | -101 B KRW | -311 B KRW | Defensive on KOSDAQ |
| Retail | +1,810 B KRW | +654 B KRW | Catching the dip |
3. Korea Sector Breakdown
The dominant theme overnight was a true broadening rally. Small caps and semis led, gold and silver moved with risk assets, and energy was the lone laggard on Brent's 5.38% slide.
Top semi-related read-through for Korea is direct. Apple's iPhone +22% YoY plus Amazon AWS +28% YoY gives Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) a double-confirm on HBM and NAND demand into Q2. SOXX has now run 17 straight green sessions but RSI is at 80, so single-day pullback risk is real.
Top laggards into May 4 risk are still last session's Korean misses — Auto with Hyundai Motor (005380) -4.50% on Q1 OP -30.8% YoY, Internet with NAVER (035420) -4.09% on GPU capex concerns, and Battery with LG Energy Solution (373220) -2.64% on the operating-loss shock.
| Sector | US Session | Korea Stock | Korea Move | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | ▲ SOX +2.26% | Samsung (005930), SK Hynix (000660) | Apr 30 -2.43% / -0.54% | KODEX Semiconductor |
| Small caps | ▲ Russell +2.21% | KOSDAQ small caps | KOSDAQ closed | KODEX Kosdaq150 |
| Energy | ▼ Brent -5.38% | SK Innovation (096770), S-Oil | n/a (closed) | Q1 prints May 13 |
| Gold/Silver | ▲ Gold +2.13% | Goldsmith / industrial silver | n/a (closed) | TIGER Gold |
| Internet | ▲ Mixed | NAVER (035420), Kakao (035720) | Apr 30 -4.09% / -2.27% | Kakao prints May 7 |
4. Stocks on My Radar
| Ticker | Price | Session % | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | $21.40 | +3.58% | ETH treasury 5,078,000 tokens (~$11.3B); MAVAN staking platform live; NYSE uplist Apr 9 |
| NVO | $42.22 | +4.79% | Oral Wegovy 170,000 patients in 4 weeks, 50,000 weekly Rx; Q1 print May 6; FY26 guide -5% to -13% |
| ZETA | $18.42 | +3.43% | Q1 revenue $396M vs $370.31M est, +50% YoY, 19th consecutive beat-and-raise; FY guide raised to $1.79B |
| ORCL | $161.39 | -1.49% | OpenAI $300B cloud-deal user/revenue miss reports; debt +60% to $153.1B; FCF -$24.74B |
| SMR | $12.46 | +10.07% | DOE backing for first 5–10 SMRs; Ebara Elliott steam-compressor partnership; sole NRC-approved design |
| COIN | $187.77 | +3.32% | Trust charter conditional approval; risk-on rebound; Q1 print May 7; FY26 EPS already cut 49% |
| LAES | $2.90 | +9.85% | Q1 revenue +200% YoY to $4.1M; 2026 guide +50–100% reaffirmed; rebound after 90-day -40% drawdown |
| ASTS | $73.90 | +5.80% | FCC 700/800 MHz direct-to-device approval Apr 28 with Verizon/AT&T/FirstNet; BlueBird-7 loss insured; biz update May 11 |
SMR led at +10.07% as the US Energy Secretary's confirmation that the first 5–10 reactors will receive DOE loans removed the financing overhang. The Ebara Elliott high-temperature steam-compressor program adds an industrial-process heat use case beyond pure power generation.
ZETA's +3.43% follows a 19th consecutive beat-and-raise: $396M revenue (+50% YoY) versus $370.31M consensus, EBITDA $66.1M, and full-year guide raised to $1.79B. ASTS +5.80% reflects the FCC approval and Verizon/AT&T/FirstNet partnerships outweighing the BlueBird-7 satellite loss, with May 11 the next catalyst. ORCL's -1.49% remains anchored by OpenAI deal scrutiny despite the broader AI rally.
5. Earnings Watch
Apple's after-close print is the centerpiece of tonight's earnings tape and resets the read-through into Korean memory.
| Company | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Rev Est | Rev Actual | Result | After-Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | $1.95 | $2.01 | $109.7B | $111.2B | Beat (iPhone +22% YoY, Services beat) | Strong |
| Zeta Global | $0.09 | 미확인 | $370.31M | $396M | Revenue beat (+50% YoY); 19th beat-and-raise | +3.43% |
Apple's beat was clean across iPhone, Services, Mac, iPad, and Wearables, with the June quarter guide of +14–17% YoY revenue growth setting up a continued tailwind. Zeta's $396M beat (+50% YoY) and lifted full-year guide to $1.79B was the cleanest SMID-cap print of the day.
| Company | Time (ET) | Consensus EPS | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron | 5/1 BMO | YoY decline | Margin under WTI $105 |
| Exxon Mobil | 5/1 BMO | n/a | Hormuz exposure + downstream |
Korea read-through: Apple's iPhone strength cycles into Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix HBM/NAND demand, layered on top of Amazon AWS +28% YoY. The energy reads from Chevron and Exxon set the read-through framework for SK Innovation's May 13 print, with Brent at $111.68 (-5.38%) and WTI at $105.75 a near-term margin headwind for refiners.
6. Today's Trade Setup
Korea is closed May 1 for Labor Day. The May 4 (Monday) KOSPI open is the actionable session. Overnight US futures point to S&P +1.17%, Nasdaq +0.98%, and Dow +1.81% above today's already strong cash close — a constructive setup.
The single most important indicator to watch on May 4 is foreign net flow in Samsung Electronics (005930) in the 9:00–9:05 AM KST window. After dumping 1,680 billion KRW on April 30, foreigners need to return for the index to break out of 6,580–6,650, and Samsung is the beachhead because Apple's iPhone +22% YoY directly cycles into HBM and NAND demand.
Two sectors take focus: Memory semis with Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) on the Apple/AWS double-confirm, and Refiners with SK Innovation (096770) and S-Oil (010950) on Brent's -5.38% slide which is a near-term margin headwind into the May 13 SK Innovation print.
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | KOSPI Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Foreign net buy in Samsung > +200B KRW + USD/KRW < 1,485 | Tests 6,650 |
| Neutral | Mixed foreign flow + USD/KRW 1,485–1,495 | 6,580–6,650 range |
| Bear | Foreign outflow > 800B KRW + USD/KRW > 1,495 | 6,520 support test |
Base case: Apple's blowout pulls foreigners modestly back into memory and lifts KOSPI into the 6,600–6,650 lane on May 4 reopen, while autos and internet stay under residual derating pressure into the May 7 Kakao earnings cluster. International readers without KRX access can track Korea via EWY (iShares MSCI Korea ETF) or the Samsung Electronics GDR.
Apple's print reset the earnings season tone in a single quarter. May 4 will tell us whether Korea's foreigners agree.
That's the AM breakdown for May 01. Trade safe.
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