Both Indices Down: KOSPI -1.38%, KOSDAQ -2.29% — Korea Close & Tomorrow Outlook 26/04/30
Hey, Dongchun here.
Here is how the Korean market closed today.
The single most important fact today is that foreigners net sold 1.68 trillion KRW in KOSPI right after a fresh record high. The reason it matters is that LG Energy Solution's 207.8 billion KRW operating loss versus a 465 billion KRW consensus broke the earnings season narrative on day one, and Hyundai Motor's -30.8% YoY operating profit added a second large-cap miss to the same session. Watch two things tonight: Apple's iPhone revenue print after the close, and whether Hormuz tension keeps WTI anchored above $108.
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1. Korea Market Close
KOSPI closed at 6,598.87 (-1.38%, -92.03 points) and KOSDAQ at 1,192.35 (-2.29%, -27.91 points), with the index reversing sharply after touching a fresh intraday record at 6,750.27. The 1.38% drop wiped out the prior session's defense of the 6,640 zone and pushed KOSDAQ back below the 1,200 line.
The single biggest driver was a 1.68 trillion KRW foreign net sell on KOSPI — the largest single-session outflow this April. The trigger was a three-way combination: hawkish FOMC aftershock with the 8-4 split and rising 10-year US yields, an earnings shock from LG Energy Solution swinging to a 207.8 billion KRW operating loss, and KRW weakness with USD/KRW jumping to 1,482.04 (+0.68%).
Breadth was poor across the board. KOSDAQ at -2.29% underperformed KOSPI by nearly a full point, signaling that small-cap risk appetite compressed harder under hawkish dissent. VKOSPI is not displayed but the parallel US VIX at 18.68 stayed in the calm zone, indicating the selloff is rotation-driven rather than panic-driven.
| Index | Close | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,598.87 | -1.38% | Heavy |
| KOSDAQ | 1,192.35 | -2.29% | Heavy |
2. Foreign Flow Analysis
Foreigners net sold 1,680 billion KRW on KOSPI and 300 billion KRW on KOSDAQ, with the selling pressure concentrated on auto (Hyundai Motor -4.50%), internet (NAVER -4.09%), and memory semis (Samsung Electronics -2.43%). The scale of the dump right after a record high suggests profit-taking compounded by the FOMC dissent overhang rather than a structural exit.
Institutions were near-flat on KOSPI at -101 billion KRW but net sold 311 billion KRW on KOSDAQ, reinforcing the small-cap derating. Retail absorbed both sides aggressively — net buying 1,810 billion KRW on KOSPI and 654 billion KRW on KOSDAQ — the classic foreign-sell-retail-catch pattern.
The combined flow signals risk-off positioning into Apple earnings tonight. US overnight futures across S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow are all in the red, which means tomorrow's KOSPI open hinges almost entirely on Apple's after-hours print and the US March PCE release.
| Investor | KOSPI Net | KOSDAQ Net | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | -1,680 B KRW | -300 B KRW | Largest April outflow |
| Institutions | -101 B KRW | -311 B KRW | Defensive on KOSDAQ |
| Retail | +1,810 B KRW | +654 B KRW | Catching the dip |
3. Sector Breakdown
The dominant theme was an earnings-season reset colliding with a hawkish FOMC aftermath. Auto, internet, and battery names all derated as multiple large-caps reported misses or in-line operating profit on the same session.
Top lagging sectors: Auto led by Hyundai Motor (005380) -4.50% on Q1 operating profit of 2.51 trillion KRW, down 30.8% YoY against consensus. Internet derated with NAVER (035420) -4.09% on GPU capex concerns despite a revenue beat, and Kakao (035720) -2.27% on multiple compression spillover. Batteries hit by LG Energy Solution (373220) -2.64% after the 207.8 billion KRW operating loss versus 465 billion KRW consensus.
Top relatively-firm areas were select IT components and refiners. Lino Industrial (058470) gained 6.42% as a memory-test-socket leader, and refining names held firm on WTI's $108 anchor. POSCO Holdings (005490) was the lone clean earnings beat with a 707 billion KRW operating profit, up 24.3% YoY.
| Sector | Direction | Key Stock | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auto | ▼ Weak | Hyundai Motor (005380) | -4.50% | Q1 OP -30.8% YoY miss |
| Internet | ▼ Weak | NAVER (035420) | -4.09% | GPU capex concern |
| Battery | ▼ Weak | LG Energy (373220) | -2.64% | Q1 OP loss vs +465B est |
| Memory | ▼ Weak | Samsung (005930) | -2.43% | Profit-taking after rally |
| Steel | ▲ Firm | POSCO Holdings (005490) | Defended | Q1 OP +24.3% YoY beat |
| IT Parts | ▲ Strong | Lino Industrial (058470) | +6.42% | Memory test socket demand |
4. Stocks on My Radar
| Ticker | Price | Session % | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | $20.66 | -3.82% | 501,545-share resale registration filed 4/29; ETH holdings 3.5M tokens, $13.3B treasury |
| NVO | $40.29 | -2.14% | OpenAI partnership intact; FY26 guidance -5% to -13% concern, earnings ahead |
| ZETA | $17.81 | +0.23% | Q1 prints today after close (4:30 PM ET); consensus revenue $370.31M (+39.9% YoY), EPS $0.09 |
| ORCL | $163.83 | -1.28% | OpenAI revenue/user miss reports; debt up 60% to $153.1B, FCF -$24.74B |
| SMR | $11.32 | -4.23% | Securities class actions; ENTRA1 G&A spike; Fluor $2.43B stake exit complete; Citi $9 Sell |
| COIN | $181.73 | -6.37% | Robinhood Q1 miss ($1.07B vs $1.13B est) drags crypto exchange peers; Coinbase Premium turns negative |
| LAES | $2.64 | -4.69% | Q1 revenue $4.1M (+200% YoY); 2026 guide +50–100%; 90-day drawdown -40% |
| ASTS | $69.85 | -2.82% | CEO comp vote pressure ($70.9M of $75M revenue milestone); BlueBird-7 orbital miss; 5/11 business update call |
ZETA is the immediate catalyst tonight at the 4:30 PM ET earnings call. Consensus revenue $370.31M and EPS $0.09 are the bar; the Marigold integration ramp and full-year guide will set the next leg. The +0.23% close reflects pre-print positioning.
ORCL remains caught in the OpenAI cloud-deal scrutiny narrative with debt up 60% to $153.1B and FCF at -$24.74B, though Meta's CAPEX raise is a two-sided signal for hyperscaler bookings. Wedbush's $225 target stays the near-term defense. COIN -6.37% reflects Robinhood's miss spilling over to crypto exchanges plus the hawkish FOMC dissent risk-off, while SMR -4.23% combines the Citi $9 Sell, ENTRA1 litigation, and the Fluor exit into a triple bear setup.
5. Earnings Watch
Today's Korean earnings cluster reset the season's tone. Five large-caps reported on the same session and the outcomes split sharply.
| Company | OP Est | OP Actual | Rev Est | Rev Actual | Result | Stock Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LG Energy Solution | +465 B KRW | -207.8 B KRW | 6.52T KRW | 6.555T KRW | Operating loss vs profit consensus | -2.64% |
| POSCO Holdings | +469.8 B KRW | +707 B KRW | 17.48T KRW | 17.876T KRW | Major beat | Defended |
| NAVER | +543.6 B KRW | +541.8 B KRW | 3.14T KRW | 3.241T KRW | Revenue beat, OP in-line | -4.09% |
| LG Chem | -163 B KRW | -49.7 B KRW | 11.20T KRW | 12.247T KRW | Revenue beat, narrower loss | Weak |
| Samsung Electro-Mech | +286.5 B KRW | +280.6 B KRW | 3.11T KRW | 3.209T KRW | Revenue beat, OP in-line | Weak |
LG Energy Solution was the night's biggest miss — a 207.8 billion KRW operating loss against a 465 billion KRW profit consensus, with the AMPC 189.8 billion KRW credit excluded the underlying loss runs to 397.5 billion KRW. POSCO Holdings was the lone clean beat at 707 billion KRW operating profit (+24.3% YoY), with the steel cycle re-acceleration as the read-through.
| Company | Time (ET) | Consensus EPS | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | After close | $1.93–1.95 | iPhone revenue ~$56.5B, China recovery, GM 48–49% |
| Chevron | 5/1 BMO | YoY decline | WTI $108 read-through |
| Exxon Mobil | 5/1 BMO | n/a | WTI $108 read-through |
Korea read-through for tomorrow: the LG Energy Solution miss pressures peer batteries (Samsung SDI 006400, POSCO Future M 003670, EcoPro BM 247540) into the May 7 Kakao print which will retest internet-sector multiples after NAVER's GPU-capex derating. Apple's iPhone print tonight sets the gap direction for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix via the memory supply chain.
6. Tomorrow's Korea Open
Nasdaq futures sit at -0.06%, S&P 500 futures at -0.18%, and Dow futures at -0.60%. The mild tilt down across all three suggests a modestly soft KOSPI open before Apple's after-hours print is digested, with gap direction not yet decided.
After-hours releases tonight are Apple-centric for Korea read-through. Apple's iPhone Q2 FY26 print (consensus $109B revenue, EPS $1.93–1.95, GM 48–49%) is the swing factor for Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) via the memory supply chain. Already-released Amazon Q1 with AWS +28% YoY (15-quarter high) and AI revenue run-rate at $15B+ is a confirmed positive AI-CAPEX signal that should partly offset today's memory weakness.
Macro events: US March PCE drops at 21:30 KST (4/30) alongside Q1 GDP advance, and US April ISM Manufacturing PMI follows at 23:00 KST (5/1). VIX at 18.68 stays in the calm zone. WTI at $108.33 keeps the inflation-reacceleration risk live, and any move above $110 reactivates the hawkish-rate channel.
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | KOSPI Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Apple beat + Amazon AWS read-through + foreign net buy at open | Tests 6,650 |
| Neutral | Apple in-line + mixed foreign flow + WTI $105–110 range | 6,580–6,650 range |
| Bear | Apple miss + foreign outflow > 1T KRW + WTI > $110 | 6,520 support test |
Base case: KOSPI trades the 6,580–6,650 lane with Apple's after-hours and the PCE print as the two binary inputs. International readers without KRX access can track Korea exposure via EWY (iShares MSCI Korea ETF) or the Samsung Electronics GDR.
The record-high reversal and the LG Energy Solution shock rewrote Korea's earnings season in a single session. Apple decides what tomorrow's open looks like.
That's the PM breakdown for April 30. Trade safe.
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