Both Indices Down: KOSPI -1.38%, KOSDAQ -2.29% — Korea Close & Tomorrow Outlook 26/05/01
Hey, Dongchun here.
Here is how the Korean market closed today.
The single most important fact today is that USD/KRW snapped back from 1,487.38 to 1,472.91 in a single session — a 14.47 won move that erased the macro headwind powering April 30's foreign dump. The reason it matters is that this is the first cleanly bullish setup since the hawkish FOMC: Apple's blowout, AWS +28% YoY, US futures still constructive, and now the FX channel finally cooperating. Watch one signal at the May 4 KOSPI open: foreign net buy in Samsung Electronics in the 9:00–9:05 KST window — that single tape tells you whether the rotation comes back in.
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1. Korea Market Close
Korea was closed May 1 for Workers' Day. Reference is the April 30 close: KOSPI 6,598.87 (-1.38%) and KOSDAQ 1,192.35 (-2.29%), with KOSPI barely defending the 6,600 line and KOSDAQ losing 1,200 outright.
The single biggest driver going into the May 4 reopen is the USD/KRW reversal from 1,487.38 to 1,472.91 (-0.97%). That move erases the FX-pressure leg that powered the April 30 foreign dump of 1,680 billion KRW concentrated in Hyundai Motor (-4.50%), NAVER (-4.09%), and Samsung Electronics (-2.43%).
Breadth on April 30 was narrowly negative — every major large cap closed red, but the worst losses clustered in Auto, Internet, and Battery, while SK Hynix held at -0.54% as the relative defender. VKOSPI is unobservable today; CBOE VIX overnight at 17.01 (+0.71%) signals continued risk-on bias.
| Index | Close | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,598.87 | -1.38% | n/a (holiday) |
| KOSDAQ | 1,192.35 | -2.29% | n/a (holiday) |
2. Foreign Flow Analysis
There were no May 1 prints because Korea was closed. April 30 KOSPI foreign net was -1,680 billion KRW — the largest single-session outflow this April — concentrated in Hyundai, NAVER, and Samsung Electronics on the LG Energy Solution operating-loss shock plus hawkish FOMC dissent.
Institutions ran defensively at -10.1 billion KRW on KOSPI and -31.1 billion KRW on KOSDAQ. Retail absorbed the foreign tape at +1,810 billion KRW on KOSPI and +654 billion KRW on KOSDAQ — the classic foreign-sell, retail-catch pattern.
For the May 4 reopen, the FX reversal is the single biggest tailwind for foreign re-entry. US overnight futures holding +0.1–0.2% on top of yesterday's strong cash close is the leading indicator to watch tonight.
| Investor | KOSPI Net (Apr 30) | KOSDAQ Net (Apr 30) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | -1,680 B KRW | -300 B KRW | Largest April outflow |
| Institutions | -10.1 B KRW | -31.1 B KRW | Defensive |
| Retail | +1,810 B KRW | +654 B KRW | Catching the dip |
3. Sector Breakdown
The dominant theme into the May 4 reopen is asymmetric — Memory and Steel/Materials are constructive on overnight catalysts; Auto, Internet, Battery, and Refiners stay under residual pressure.
Top gaining setup is Memory semis: Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) get a double-confirm from Apple iPhone +22% YoY and Amazon AWS +28% YoY, with SOX overnight +2.26%. Steel and Materials get a fresh boost from POSCO Holdings' Q1 EPS beat at 5,896 KRW versus 4,333 KRW consensus (+36.1% surprise).
Top lagging risk is Refiners: WTI fell to $104.41 (-0.63%) and Brent collapsed to $110.61 (-6.29%) overnight, pressuring SK Innovation (096770) and S-Oil margins into the May 13 SK Innovation print. Auto, Internet, and Battery still carry the April 30 derating overhang.
| Sector | Direction | Key Stock | Apr 30 Move | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | ▲ Bullish setup | Samsung (005930), SK Hynix (000660) | -2.43% / -0.54% | Apple iPhone +22% YoY, AWS +28% YoY |
| Steel/Materials | ▲ Bullish | POSCO Holdings (005490) | n/a | Q1 EPS +36.1% beat, lithium rebound |
| Refiners | ▼ Bearish | SK Innovation (096770) | n/a | Brent -6.29%, WTI -0.63% |
| Auto | ▼ Lingering weak | Hyundai Motor (005380) | -4.50% | Q1 OP -30.8% YoY miss |
| Internet | ▼ Lingering weak | NAVER (035420), Kakao (035720) | -4.09% / -2.27% | GPU capex concerns; Kakao prints May 7 |
4. Stocks on My Radar
| Ticker | Price | Session % | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | $21.40 | +3.58% | ETH treasury 5,078,000 tokens (~$11.3B); risk-on rebound |
| NVO | $42.22 | +4.79% | Oral Wegovy 170,000 patients in 4 weeks; Q1 print May 6 |
| ZETA | $18.42 | +3.43% | Q1 revenue $396M vs $370.31M est, +50% YoY; 19th beat-and-raise; FY guide $1.79B |
| ORCL | $161.39 | -1.49% | OpenAI $300B cloud-deal user/revenue miss reports; debt +60% |
| SMR | $12.46 | +10.07% | DOE backing for first 5–10 SMRs; Ebara Elliott steam-compressor partnership |
| COIN | $187.77 | +3.32% | Trust charter conditional approval; risk-on rebound; Q1 print May 7 |
| LAES | $2.90 | +9.85% | Q1 revenue +200% YoY to $4.1M; 2026 guide +50–100% reaffirmed |
| ASTS | $73.90 | +5.80% | FCC 700/800 MHz approval Apr 28 with Verizon/AT&T/FirstNet; biz update May 11 |
SMR led at +10.07% on the DOE financing confirmation for the first 5–10 reactors plus the Ebara Elliott high-temperature steam-compressor partnership, layering a process-heat use case on top of the sole NRC-approved design status.
LAES +9.85% reflects an oversold rebound after a 90-day -40% drawdown, supported by Q1 +200% YoY revenue and the 2026 guide reaffirmation. ASTS +5.80% combines the FCC direct-to-device approval and Verizon/AT&T/FirstNet partnerships outweighing the BlueBird-7 satellite loss, with May 11 the next catalyst. ORCL -1.49% remained the lone laggard as OpenAI deal scrutiny capped the broader AI rally.
5. Earnings Watch
POSCO Holdings dropped a clean Q1 beat in Korea on April 30, and tonight's US tape is anchored by Chevron and Exxon Mobil before the bell on May 1.
| Company | EPS Est | EPS Actual | Rev Est | Rev Actual | Result | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POSCO Holdings | 4,333 KRW | 5,896 KRW | n/a | KRW 17.9T | EPS +36.1% surprise | n/a (Korea closed May 1) |
POSCO's beat was driven by a lithium-price rebound, improved Argentina lithium plant utilization, and steel/infrastructure profit normalization. Operating profit reached KRW 710 billion, both revenue and OP up sequentially.
| Company | Time (ET) | Consensus EPS | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chevron | 5/1 BMO | $0.92 (-57.8% YoY) | Margin under WTI $104.41 |
| Exxon Mobil | 5/1 BMO | $0.98 (vs $1.76 prior) | Hormuz exposure + downstream margins |
Korea read-through for May 4 open: POSCO's beat is constructive for Materials/Steel and lithium-related plays. Chevron and Exxon prints frame the SK Innovation (096770) May 13 setup, with Brent at $110.61 (-6.29%) and WTI at $104.41 (-0.63%) a clear near-term margin headwind for Korean refiners.
6. Tomorrow's Korea Open
This is the most important section of the day given Korea's holiday: tonight's overnight tape sets up the entire May 4 reopen.
S&P futures at 7,256.00 (+0.17%) and Nasdaq futures at 27,620.50 (+0.09%) hold a constructive structure on top of yesterday's record cash close. The setup implies a modest gap up for KOSPI on May 4 unless overnight headlines reverse, and the FX channel — USD/KRW now at 1,472.91 — is finally cooperating.
There were no after-hours earnings tonight that directly impact Korean memory beyond the layered Apple-and-Amazon read-through already baked in. Instead, watch tonight's Chevron and Exxon Mobil prints (consensus EPS $0.92 and $0.98 respectively, both YoY declines) for the read-through into SK Innovation's May 13 release.
Macro tonight: April US ISM Manufacturing PMI is the sole material data point. VIX at 17.01 (+0.71%) sits comfortably below the 20 risk-off line.
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | KOSPI Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Foreign net buy in Samsung > +50B KRW + USD/KRW < 1,470 | 6,700 retest |
| Neutral | Mixed flow + USD/KRW 1,470–1,485 | 6,580–6,680 range |
| Bear | Foreign outflow > +500B KRW + USD/KRW > 1,485 | 6,520 support test |
Base case: the FX reversal plus constructive overnight futures pull KOSPI into the 6,600–6,680 lane on May 4 reopen, with Memory leading and Refiners under pressure. International readers without KRX access can track Korea via EWY (iShares MSCI Korea ETF) or the Samsung Electronics GDR.
The holiday actually helped. Korea reopens May 4 with a friendlier macro deck and a single tape — Samsung's first five minutes — that decides the week.
That's the PM breakdown for May 01. Trade safe.
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