KOSPI Up, KOSDAQ Lags: KOSPI +2.63%, KOSDAQ -0.20% — Korea Close & Tomorrow Outlook 26/05/13
Hey, Dongchun here.
Here is how the Korean market closed today.
The only thing that matters today is the V-shaped reversal. Foreign investors dumped over KRW 2 trillion and the index gapped down to 7,497, but retail and institutional dip-buyers pushed it back to 7,844 — a 350-point intraday swing driven almost entirely by SK Hynix (+7.68%) and Hyundai Motor (+9.91%). Watch USD/KRW at 1,488 and Nasdaq futures above +0.5% as the twin tells for whether 8,000 is the next stop or 7,800 holds.
Previous post: Read it →
1. Korea Market Close
KOSPI closed at 7,844.01, up +2.63% (+200.86pt), while KOSDAQ ended -0.20% at 1,176.93. The intraday range was massive — the index gapped down to roughly 7,497 (-1.91%) on the US CPI shock before reversing roughly 350 points to a near-session-high close.
The single biggest driver was a domestic dip-buying response to foreign selling. Foreigners net sold over KRW 2 trillion on the KOSPI, but retail investors (+KRW 2.1 trillion) and institutions (+KRW 360 billion) combined to absorb the supply and push the index higher, concentrated in SK Hynix (000660) and Hyundai Motor (005380).
Market breadth was narrow and large-cap-driven. KOSDAQ went the other way at -0.20%, and the divergence between Samsung's +1.79% versus SK Hynix's +7.68% shows the rally was unevenly concentrated. VIX at 17.98 is calm, so this is rotation rather than panic — but the breadth confirms today was a rebound, not a regime change.
| Index | Close | Change | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 7,844.01 | +2.63% | semis 40%+ of daily turnover |
| KOSDAQ | 1,176.93 | -0.20% | mid-cap pressure persists |
2. Foreign Flow Analysis
Foreign investors net sold over KRW 2 trillion on the KOSPI, with the May cumulative tally now near KRW 14.5 trillion of selling — most of it in SK Hynix (~KRW 6.4T) and Samsung Electronics (~KRW 5.5T). That foreign selling pace would normally crush the index, but today it failed to.
Institutional flow flipped clearly positive at +KRW 360 billion, while retail bought roughly +KRW 2.1 trillion. The retail tape concentrated on the same megacaps the foreigners were dumping — chip and auto — and overwhelmed the foreign supply for one session.
This combination implies tomorrow hinges on whether retail conviction holds for a second day. If US overnight futures (Nasdaq +0.49%) stay green and USD/KRW retraces below 1,485, foreign selling could decelerate; if FX breaks above 1,490, the retail bid faces a second wave of foreign exit.
| Investor | KOSPI Net | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | -KRW 2T+ | 5th consecutive day of selling; May cum. -KRW 14.5T |
| Institutions | +KRW 360B | reversed to buy on dip |
| Retail | +KRW 2.1T | absorbed foreign supply at lows |
3. Sector Breakdown
The dominant theme was a semiconductor and auto V-shaped rebound, decoupling from the US SOX -3.01% session. With the won weak at 1,487, exporters held an FX tailwind even as the CPI shock pressured high-multiple names.
The top gainers were semiconductors and autos. SK Hynix (000660) closed +7.68% on resilient AI demand expectations even as foreign flow remained negative. Hyundai Motor (005380) surged +9.91% as USD/KRW above 1,485 reset earnings translation math sharply higher.
The laggards were batteries and internet. LG Energy Solution (373220) finished -2.93% on lingering EV-demand and rate-channel pressure, and NAVER (035420) -1.23% as the US 10-year yield jump of +1.20% to 4.46% compressed platform multiples directly.
| Sector | Direction | Key Stock | Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | ▲ Strong | SK Hynix (000660) | +7.68% | dip-buy after gap-down; AI demand thesis intact |
| Autos | ▲ Strong | Hyundai Motor (005380) | +9.91% | weak KRW at 1,487 tailwind |
| Refining | ▲ Strong | SK Innovation (096770) | earnings beat | Q1 OP KRW 2.16T, swing to profit |
| Batteries | ▼ Weak | LG Energy (373220) | -2.93% | rate-channel + EV demand drag |
| Internet | ▼ Weak | NAVER (035420) | -1.23% | high-multiple compression |
4. Stocks on My Radar
| Ticker | Price | Session % | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | $21.67 | -5.86% | Crypto risk-off; resale registration filings weigh |
| NVO | $47.00 | +1.29% | Wegovy pill Q1 sales DKK 2.26B vs DKK 1.16B est; 2026 guide raised |
| ZETA | $16.25 | -1.57% | Q1 +50% rev growth; profit-taking despite raised guide |
| ORCL | $186.83 | -3.62% | Inflation + AI capex fears press toward $180 |
| SMR | $12.00 | -9.71% | Citi PT $9→$7; Goldman $10→$9; ENTRA1 class-action |
| COIN | $207.64 | -4.14% | Q1 EPS -$1.49 vs +$0.27 est; 14% layoffs; Barclays PT $107 |
| LAES | $2.94 | -3.92% | Post-AGM unwind continues |
| ASTS | $72.96 | -11.62% | Q1 rev $14.7M vs $37.5M est; net loss $191M |
BMNR fell -5.86% as crypto risk-off dominated even with 5.21M ETH on balance sheet ($13.4B total assets). NVO ticked +1.29% as Q1 Wegovy pill revenue of DKK 2.26B nearly doubled the DKK 1.16B consensus and management raised the full-year guide.
ZETA pulled back -1.57% despite Q1 +50% YoY revenue and a guidance raise, with 11-analyst consensus PT $28.27 still intact. ORCL slid -3.62% on broad de-risking of high-multiple AI cloud exposure as 10-year yields jumped +1.20%.
SMR collapsed -9.71% as Citi cut PT to $7 and Goldman to $9, layered onto class-action exposure tied to the ENTRA1 partnership disclosures. COIN dropped -4.14% on aftershock from the May 7 Q1 print: EPS -$1.49 versus +$0.27 expected, a 14% workforce cut, and a Barclays PT cut to $107.
LAES eased -3.92% on continued post-AGM profit-taking, despite +200% YoY Q1 revenue. ASTS crashed -11.62% as Q1 revenue printed $14.74M against $37.5M expectations and net loss widened to $191M; the company did, however, reaffirm full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150M–$200M.
5. Earnings Watch
Two Korean heavyweights reported today with sharply diverging results — SK Innovation surprised to the upside on refining, while Korea Electric Power printed roughly in line on the top line but below the operating-profit consensus.
| Company | OP Actual | Revenue Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korea Electric Power (015760) | KRW 3.78T | KRW 24.40T | OP below ~KRW 4.4T consensus |
| SK Innovation (096770) | KRW 2.16T | KRW 24.21T | Revenue beat KRW 20.84T cons; OP swing to profit |
The biggest beat was SK Innovation's Q1 operating profit of KRW 2.16 trillion, a swing from prior-year loss, on WTI $100+ regime inventory revaluation gains and improved refining margins. Revenue of KRW 24.21 trillion crushed the KRW 20.84 trillion consensus. KEPCO's KRW 3.78 trillion operating profit (+0.8% YoY) missed the ~KRW 4.4 trillion consensus, and forward 2026/2027 estimates are flagged for material downward revisions.
| Company | Report Date | EPS Consensus (KRW) | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK Holdings (034730) | 2026-05-21 | 11,019 | refining + battery flow-through from SK Innovation |
Korea read-through for tomorrow's open: SK Innovation's beat supports a refining-sector re-rating, including GS (078930) and S-Oil (010950), while KEPCO's miss may pressure utility names on hot-half fuel-cost risk. The semiconductor and auto bid established today remains the primary positive thread into the next session.
6. Tomorrow's Korea Open
Nasdaq futures are +0.49%, S&P 500 futures +0.13% and Dow futures -0.07% — a mild green tape that should support a flat-to-slightly-positive open on Korea tomorrow. The CPI repricing has run its first wave and the SOX -3.01% session is being partially digested overnight rather than extended.
The direct Korea read-through is constructive for chips. SK Hynix (000660) and Samsung Electronics (005930) held their bids today against a US SOX -3% night, suggesting AI demand conviction is intact at the local level. Hyundai Motor (005380) gets a second tailwind from USD/KRW at 1,487.
Macro variables tonight focus on Fed speakers and follow-through CPI commentary. VIX at 17.98 is calm and below the 20 threshold, which is consistent with a risk-on bias for tomorrow's Asia open as long as the won does not break above 1,490.
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | KOSPI Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Nasdaq futures hold above +0.5%, USD/KRW retraces below 1,485, foreign sell moderates to under KRW 1T | Tests 8,000 |
| Neutral | Futures stay +0.0% to +0.5%, FX in 1,485–1,490, foreign net sell KRW 1–2T | 7,800–7,900 range |
| Bear | Nasdaq futures break -0.5%, USD/KRW breaks 1,495, foreign sell extends above KRW 3T | Tests 7,650 |
Base case is a 7,800–7,900 range as the market consolidates today's V-shaped reversal against a still-hot inflation backdrop. Readers without direct KRX access can track this via EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea) or the Samsung Electronics GDR.
Foreign 2 trillion sell vs. retail 2.1 trillion buy ended in a V — the rebound is real but conditional. The won at 1,488 will decide if 8,000 happens this week or waits.
So — where does this leave us going into tomorrow?
That's the PM breakdown for May 13. Trade safe.
Comments
Post a Comment