US April CPI printed +3.8% YoY against +3.7% consensus | Nasdaq -0.71%, S&P -0.16% — Korea Open Preview 26/05/13
Hey, Dongchun here.
The only thing that matters today is the +3.8% headline CPI print. It triggered a 1.20% jump in 10-year yields, a -3.01% SOX day and a $102 WTI on the same tape — inflation, oil and rates have aligned against high-multiple US tech in one session. Watch Nasdaq futures below -1% and WTI above $102 as the twin tells for whether Korea's rebound holds tomorrow.
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1. US Session Recap
The S&P 500 closed -0.16% at 7,400.96, the Nasdaq -0.71% at 26,088.20, the Dow +0.11% at 49,760.56, and the Russell 2000 -0.97% at 2,842.83. The split tape — Dow up, small caps and tech down — reads as classic stagflationary rotation after a CPI shock at near-record index levels.
The catalyst was the April CPI report. Headline inflation accelerated to +3.8% year-on-year (above the +3.7% consensus and the prior +3.3%), the highest reading since May 2023, with energy contributing more than 40% of the gain on a 28.4% YoY gasoline jump. Core CPI ran at +2.8%, also above expectations.
Breadth was poor but not panic. The SOX semiconductor index fell -3.01% as profit-taking hit a sector up roughly 65% year-to-date, while VIX actually fell -2.12% to 17.99 — hedges were not chased, suggesting orderly de-grossing rather than forced liquidation.
For Korea, the direct read-through is mixed. SOX -3.01% is a headwind for Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660), while WTI at $102 supports SK Innovation refiners and pressures airlines and petrochemicals on input cost.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,400.96 | -0.16% |
| Nasdaq | 26,088.20 | -0.71% |
| Dow Jones | 49,760.56 | +0.11% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,842.83 | -0.97% |
2. Korea Market Snapshot
KOSPI closed at 7,822.24 (+4.32%, +324.24pt) while KOSDAQ ended -0.03% at 1,207.34. The headline index move is sharp but the breadth divergence — large caps mixed, KOSDAQ flat — argues the rally is concentrated rather than broad.
Foreign investor flow numbers were not in the prefetched dataset, so the precise net buy/sell tape for the session is not confirmed in this writeup. What is clear from the stock-level prints is that Samsung Electronics (005930) finished -2.28%, SK Hynix (000660) -2.39%, LG Energy Solution (373220) -5.34% and NAVER (035420) -3.55% — the largest names lagged the index.
That divergence implies the KOSPI move was driven by mid-cap or sector-specific flows rather than across-the-board foreign buying of the megacaps. The next session is the tell: if foreign buying rotates back into Samsung and SK Hynix, the rebound becomes credible; if not, today reads as a thin-tape squeeze.
| Index | Prev Close | Change | Key Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 7,822.24 | +4.32% | 7,650 support / 8,000 resistance |
| KOSDAQ | 1,207.34 | -0.03% | 1,200 support |
| Investor | KOSPI Net | KOSDAQ Net | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | not in dataset | not in dataset | requires confirmation next session |
| Institutions | not in dataset | not in dataset | requires confirmation next session |
| Retail | not in dataset | not in dataset | requires confirmation next session |
3. Korea Sector Breakdown
The dominant theme overnight was the US CPI shock — a single inflation print drove semiconductors -3.01% (SOX), 10-year Treasury yields +1.20%, WTI +4.06% and Fed rate-cut odds for 2026 lower. High-multiple tech bore the brunt while energy and defensives held up.
In Korea, autos and refiners screen relatively well. Hyundai Motor (005380) closed flat at 0.00% as USD/KRW at 1,474 (+0.95%) continues to support export-earnings translation. SK Innovation reports today and is expected to flag a Q1 operating profit step-up to roughly KRW 1.6 trillion on refining-margin tailwinds with WTI above $100.
The pressure zone is batteries and internet. LG Energy Solution (373220) closed -5.34% and NAVER (035420) -3.55% — high-multiple growth segments that compress most directly when the US 10-year yield jumps and the Fed cut path repricing extends.
| Sector | US Session | Korea Stock | Korea Move | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | ▼ SOX -3.01% | Samsung (005930), SK Hynix (000660) | -2.28% / -2.39% | KODEX Semiconductor |
| Refining | ▲ WTI +4.06% | SK Innovation (096770) | earnings today | refining-margin print |
| Batteries | ▼ Weak | LG Energy (373220) | -5.34% | TIGER 2차전지 |
| Internet | ▼ Weak | NAVER (035420), Kakao (035720) | -3.55% / -2.57% | platform multiples |
| Autos | ◼ Flat | Hyundai (005380) | 0.00% | weak KRW tailwind |
4. Stocks on My Radar
| Ticker | Price | Session % | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | $21.67 | -5.86% | ETH holdings hit 5.21M ($12.3B) but crypto risk-off dominated |
| NVO | $47.00 | +1.29% | Wegovy 7.2mg high-dose data: -27.7% body weight at 72 weeks |
| ZETA | $16.25 | -1.57% | Q1 +50% rev growth, guidance raised but profit-taking persists |
| ORCL | $186.83 | -3.62% | TikTok USDS 15% stake intact, OCI momentum fights tape pressure |
| SMR | $12.00 | -9.71% | Citi PT $9→$7, Goldman $10→$9, Fluor 40M-share exit weighs |
| COIN | $207.64 | -4.14% | Bitcoin at $80,957, Q1 revenue -30% YoY both drag |
| LAES | $2.94 | -3.92% | Post-AGM profit-taking continues on +200% YoY Q1 base |
| ASTS | $72.96 | -11.62% | Q1 EPS -$0.66 vs -$0.21 cons, rev $14.7M vs $37.5M cons |
BMNR fell -5.86% as crypto risk-off ran ahead of the structural ETH treasury story. NVO ticked higher on the Wegovy 7.2mg high-dose efficacy print, where fast-responder patients dropped 27.7% of body weight at 72 weeks.
ZETA pulled back -1.57% despite Q1 revenue growth of +50% YoY and a raised 2026 guide. ORCL fell -3.62% on broad de-risking, with the TikTok USDS Joint Venture 15% stake closed back in January and OCI growth intact as the structural pillars.
SMR collapsed -9.71% as Citi cut the price target to $7 and Goldman to $9, layered onto Fluor's full ~40M-share exit from its NuScale position. COIN dropped -4.14% as Bitcoin slipped to $80,957 and the Q1 revenue print sat at $1.41B versus $2.03B a year earlier.
LAES gave back -3.92% in the post-AGM unwind despite Q1 revenue tripling year-on-year. ASTS plunged -11.62% as Q1 EPS missed at -$0.66 vs -$0.21 consensus and revenue printed $14.7M vs $37.5M expected, compounded by guidance for a Q2 satellite-loss write-off of $155M–$160M.
5. Earnings Watch
Korean earnings matter today because two heavyweight names — Korea Electric Power (015760) and SK Innovation (096770) — report into the session, with refining margins and power-cost recovery dynamics both live variables.
| Company | EPS Consensus (KRW) | Revenue Consensus | Report Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korea Electric Power (015760) | 3,743 | KRW 24.73T | 2026-05-13 |
| SK Innovation (096770) | 1,247 | KRW 20.84T | 2026-05-13 |
| SK Holdings (034730) | 11,019 | KRW 31.63T | 2026-05-21 |
The biggest watch is SK Innovation's refining-margin print. Street estimates point to Q1 operating profit near KRW 1.6 trillion, a +374% step-up quarter-on-quarter, driven by inventory revaluation gains on WTI's $100+ regime and tightened distillate margins. IBK Investment recently raised its target to KRW 200,000 from KRW 165,000.
Korea Electric Power is expected to deliver Q1 operating profit near KRW 4.4 trillion, in line with consensus but with full-year 2026 and 2027 estimates flagged for downward revisions of 35% and 27% respectively. The read-through for Korea is direct: refiners benefit from the oil channel, while utilities face fuel-cost squeeze and a longer cost-recovery cycle.
6. Today's Trade Setup
The expected open direction for tomorrow's Korea session is flat-to-slightly-negative. US overnight futures show S&P 500 -0.23%, Nasdaq -0.99%, Dow +0.12% — the SOX channel and CPI repricing are still bleeding through, while USD/KRW at 1,474 (+0.95%) is stable but not retracing.
The single most important indicator to watch is foreign net flow in Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) at the 9:00–9:05 KST open. Today's index rally with both megacaps down suggests foreign buying was not in the megacaps; if 9:00 prints flip positive, the rebound becomes credible.
The two sectors to focus on are refiners and autos. SK Innovation (096770) reports today with Q1 operating profit estimated near KRW 1.6 trillion on WTI $100+ refining margin tailwinds. Hyundai Motor (005380) is the cleanest beneficiary of USD/KRW above 1,470 if global risk-on returns.
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | KOSPI Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Nasdaq futures retrace above -0.5%, foreign net buy in Samsung > +200B KRW | Tests 7,900 |
| Neutral | Futures stay -1% range, foreign flow mixed, refiners outperform | 7,750–7,850 range |
| Bear | Nasdaq futures break -1.5%, WTI above $105, foreign sell extends another KRW 2T | Tests 7,650 |
Base case is a 7,750–7,850 range as the market digests yesterday's +4.32% move against a hot US CPI and an oil-driven inflation channel. Readers without direct KRX access can track this through EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea) or the Samsung Electronics GDR.
One CPI print just put the rate-cut narrative on hold and the chip rally on probation. The next session decides if today's Korean decoupling was conviction or a one-day quirk.
So — which way does Korea swing at the open today?
That's the AM breakdown for May 13. Trade safe.
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