US markets set fresh record highs on May 13 as the Nasdaq rose +1.20% to 26 | Nasdaq +1.20%, S&P +0.58% — Korea Open Preview 26/05/14
Hey, Dongchun here.
The single most important fact today is the widening US–Korea decoupling. The US tape pushed through a 6% PPI shock on pure AI conviction — SOX +2.57%, Nasdaq new high — while Korea broke down -2.29% to 7,643.15 because the won jumped to 1,492.99 and foreigners exited 5.7 trillion won in a single session. Watch USD/KRW 1,490 and foreign Samsung/SK Hynix flow at the 9:00–9:05 open: that single tell decides whether 7,750 is in play or 7,500 gets tested next.
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1. US Session Recap
The S&P 500 closed +0.58% at 7,444.25 and the Nasdaq surged +1.20% to 26,402.34, both setting new all-time record closes. The Dow fell -0.14% to 49,693.20 and Russell 2000 was flat at +0.04% (2,843.93), confirming the rally was narrow and AI-led rather than broad-based.
The single biggest catalyst was a powerful semiconductor rally that overwhelmed a hot April PPI print. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) jumped +2.57% to 12,017.98, with names like Micron (+~3%), Marvell (+~7%) and On Semiconductor (+~10%) driving the move, even as wholesale inflation surged to +6% year-over-year — the biggest jump since December 2022.
Market breadth was thin. Cyclicals like Home Depot and JPMorgan dragged the Dow lower as energy-driven inflation and Iran-conflict cost pressure weighed on economy-sensitive names. VIX fell to 17.87 (-0.67%), confirming no panic — this was rotation into AI mega-cap exposure, not risk-on across the board.
For Korea, the read-through is split. SOX +2.57% is directly supportive for SK Hynix (000660) and Samsung Electronics (005930) at the next open, but US 10-year yields jumping +0.40% to 4.48% (a fresh post-July-2025 high) compresses high-multiple names like NAVER and Kakao on the duration channel.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,444.25 | +0.58% |
| Nasdaq | 26,402.34 | +1.20% |
| Dow Jones | 49,693.20 | -0.14% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,843.93 | +0.04% |
2. Korea Market Snapshot
KOSPI closed -2.29% at 7,643.15 after touching an intraday high near 7,999, just one tick away from the 8,000 milestone. KOSDAQ ended -2.32% at 1,179.29, with the previously absent KOSDAQ-KOSPI divergence collapsing into a coordinated sell-off.
Foreign investors net sold roughly KRW 5.7 trillion on the KOSPI, the heaviest single-session exit of the month. The flow was concentrated in semiconductor and auto large caps that had led yesterday's V-shaped rebound, with USD/KRW spiking +1.26% to 1,492.99 as the FX channel triggered the exit.
Domestic flow could not absorb the foreign supply this time. The combination of an aggressive FX move and a fifth straight session of foreign selling implies the next session hinges on whether overnight Nasdaq futures (+1.60%) can attract foreign buyers back, or whether USD/KRW breaks above 1,495 and accelerates outflows.
| Index | Prev Close | Change | Key Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 7,643.15 | -2.29% | 7,500 support / 7,750 reclaim |
| KOSDAQ | 1,179.29 | -2.32% | 1,170 support test |
| Investor | KOSPI Net | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Foreigners | -KRW 5.7T | 5th straight selling session; May cum. near -KRW 20T |
| Institutions | net sell (small) | unable to absorb foreign exit |
| Retail | net buy (partial) | dip-buying capacity exhausted vs. yesterday |
3. Korea Sector Breakdown
The dominant US theme was an AI semiconductor breakout, with SOX +2.57% pushing year-to-date gains near 65% and outperforming the S&P 500 by the widest 12-month spread. Cyclicals and rate-sensitive names lagged on the inflation read.
Korean exporters in semiconductors and autos should be the read-through beneficiaries. SK Hynix (000660) and Samsung Electronics (005930) are most directly tied to SOX strength, and Hyundai Motor (005380) retains an FX tailwind with USD/KRW above 1,490.
The drag candidates are batteries and internet. LG Energy Solution (373220) faces continued EV-demand and rate-channel pressure with the US 10-year at 4.48%, and NAVER (035420) plus Kakao (035720) face multiple compression from the same yield jump.
| Sector | US Session | Korea Stock | Korea Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors | ▲ SOX +2.57% | Samsung (005930), SK Hynix (000660) | Foreign flow at open |
| Autos | ▲ Mixed | Hyundai Motor (005380) | KRW above 1,490 tailwind |
| Refining | ▲ WTI $101 base | SK Innovation (096770), S-Oil (010950) | Post-earnings re-rating |
| Batteries | ▼ Soft | LG Energy (373220) | Rate-channel drag |
| Internet | ▼ Weak | NAVER (035420), Kakao (035720) | 10Y 4.48% duration hit |
4. Stocks on My Radar
| Ticker | Price | Session % | Key Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMNR | $21.18 | -2.26% | Crypto risk-off persists despite 5.21M ETH reserves |
| NVO | $47.08 | +0.17% | Wegovy beat + FY26 guide raise; India sales +40% |
| ZETA | $16.04 | -1.29% | Profit-taking after Q1 +50% rev growth |
| ORCL | $189.76 | +1.57% | Oppenheimer PT $210→$235; AI CAPEX tailwind |
| SMR | $11.96 | -0.33% | Citi/GS PT cuts digested; class-action overhang |
| COIN | $201.80 | -2.81% | Q1 EPS miss aftershock; Barclays PT $107 |
| LAES | $2.96 | +0.68% | Quantum-resistant chip pipeline intact |
| ASTS | $74.81 | +2.54% | Roth PT $82.50→$108; Golden Dome $1.2T exposure |
BMNR drifted -2.26% as bitcoin-channel risk-off dominated even with $13.4 billion total assets and 5.21 million ETH on the balance sheet. NVO held flat at +0.17% after the Wegovy beat and FY26 sales guide upgrade to -4% to -12% from -5% to -13%, with India April sales +40% adding a secondary spark.
ZETA fell -1.29% as four-day profit-taking continued despite the Q1 +50% YoY revenue print and raised guide; 11-analyst PT consensus of $28.27 is unchanged. ORCL gained +1.57% on Oppenheimer's PT lift to $235 and a clean ride on SOX +2.57% strength.
SMR was nearly flat at -0.33% as Citi PT $9→$7 and Goldman $10→$9 cuts were absorbed; the ENTRA1 class-action overhang remains. COIN slid -2.81% on lingering aftershock from the May 7 print (EPS -$1.49 vs +$0.27 est), with global exchange volumes down 48% from October 2025 peaks.
LAES rose +0.68% as post-AGM profit-taking faded with the quantum-resistant RISC-V chip pipeline intact. ASTS rebounded +2.54% on Roth Capital's PT raise from $82.50 to $108 and Trump's $1.2 trillion Golden Dome defense initiative, which lists military comms, tactical satellite and space-based radar as direct ASTS exposure.
5. Earnings Watch
Korean earnings calendar is light into next week. The next major release is SK Holdings (034730) on May 21, with consensus EPS of KRW 11,019 and revenue of KRW 31.63 trillion.
| Company | Report Date | EPS Consensus (KRW) | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| SK Holdings (034730) | 2026-05-21 | 11,019 | Refining + battery flow-through from SK Innovation Q1 beat |
The Korea read-through is concentrated in refining and energy. SK Innovation's Q1 KRW 2.16 trillion operating profit beat (reported May 13) supports re-rating across GS (078930), S-Oil (010950), and SK Holdings itself; the chain's reaction at SK Holdings will signal whether the group-level upside is fully priced.
6. Today's Trade Setup
The next KOSPI open faces a tug-of-war: Nasdaq futures at +1.60% and S&P futures at +0.74% point to clear external support, but USD/KRW at 1,492.99 (+1.26%) is the dominant restraint on foreign re-entry. The base case is a flat-to-slightly-positive open with semiconductor names leading.
The single most important indicator is foreign net flow in Samsung Electronics during the 9:00–9:05 KST open window. Today's KRW 5.7 trillion foreign exit was concentrated in chip megacaps, so a flip to net buying in Samsung within the first five minutes would be the cleanest signal that overnight US strength is being honored.
The two sectors to focus on are semiconductors and refining. Semiconductors — Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) — get a direct SOX +2.57% tailwind. Refining names — SK Innovation (096770) and S-Oil (010950) — retain WTI $101 base support after SK Innovation's Q1 KRW 2.16T operating profit beat.
| Scenario | Trigger Condition | KOSPI Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bull | Nasdaq futures hold above +1.5%, USD/KRW retraces below 1,490, foreign sell shrinks under KRW 2T | Reclaims 7,750 |
| Neutral | Futures +0.5% to +1.0%, FX in 1,490–1,495, foreign net sell KRW 3T range | 7,600–7,700 |
| Bear | USD/KRW breaks 1,495, foreign sell extends above KRW 5T, US 10Y holds above 4.50% | Tests 7,500 |
The base case is a 7,600–7,700 range as the market processes today's foreign exit against overnight US tech strength. Readers without direct KRX access can track this via EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea) or the Samsung Electronics GDR.
AI carried America through a hot inflation print; FX broke Korea on the very same day. The 1,490 line on the won is the only thing standing between a relief bounce and a deeper retest.
So — which way does Korea swing at the open today?
That's the AM breakdown for May 14. Trade safe.
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